CAJ | 학술논문

我国石油消费与其它国家存在多方面经济关系，分析表明，我国石油消费使石油输出国取得了巨额收益，使世界领先的石油公司取得了丰厚利润，使制造业发达国家的相关产业得以实现高增值。充足的石油供给是汽车大国将我国作为其市场的必要条件。格兰杰因果关系检验表明，我国石油消费是石油资源国、世界领先石油公司所属国、制造业发达国经济增长的格兰杰原因；我国汽车销售量是汽车生产大国经济增长的格兰杰原因，证实了以上分析。因此，除非发生重大军事冲突，世界强国不会轻易阻断我国的运油航线。当然，考虑到世界政治、军事形势的莫测变化，建立多渠道的石油资源供应保障体系和保持适量的石油贮备还是必要的。
아국석유소비여기타국가존재다방면경제관계，분석표명，아국석유소비사석유수출국취득료거액수익，사세계령선적석유공사취득료봉후리윤，사제조업발체국가적상관산업득이실현고증치。충족적석유공급시기차대국장아국작위기시장적필요조건。격란걸인과관계검험표명，아국석유소비시석유자원국、세계령선석유공사소속국、제조업발체국경제증장적격란걸원인；아국기차소수량시기차생산대국경제증장적격란걸원인，증실료이상분석。인차，제비발생중대군사충돌，세계강국불회경역조단아국적운유항선。당연，고필도세계정치、군사형세적막측변화，건립다거도적석유자원공응보장체계화보지괄량적석유저비환시필요적。
There are many economic relations between China’ s oil consumption and other countries. An a-nalysis shows that China’ s oil consumption brings huge gains for the oil exporting countries and huge profits for the leading oil companies in the world, and makes the countries which are developed in manufacturing industries achieve high added value in relevant industries. Adequate oil supply is a necessary condition for auto-producing countries to take our country as a market. Granger causality test shows that China’ s oil con-sumption is a Granger cause of economic growth of countries with oil resources, of countries with the world’ s leading oil companies, and of countries developed in manufacturing industries. China’ s automobile sale volume is a Granger cause of economic growth of the automobile producing countries, confirming the above analysis. Therefore, unless a major military conflict arises, world powers would not easily cut off our oil routes. Of course, in view of the world’ s unpredictable political and military situation change, it is neces-sary to establish a multi-channel supply system and maintain a right amount of oil reserve.