CAJ | 학술논문

面对2015年4000万辆的计划产能，我国汽车行业可能出现严重的产能过剩。本文采用 SPSS 曲线估计的方法对1995~2012年的销量数据进行拟合，经过综合评价选择二次方程对2015年的汽车销量进行预测，得出确实存在产能过剩危机的结论。最后提出缩减预期销量与计划产能差距，提高汽车产业竞争力的若干对策。
면대2015년4000만량적계화산능，아국기차행업가능출현엄중적산능과잉。본문채용 SPSS 곡선고계적방법대1995~2012년적소량수거진행의합，경과종합평개선택이차방정대2015년적기차소량진행예측，득출학실존재산능과잉위궤적결론。최후제출축감예기소량여계화산능차거，제고기차산업경쟁력적약간대책。
In front of 40,000,000 units planned capacity in 2015, china's automobile industry may counter serious overcapacity. The article uses SPSS curve estimation method to fit the sales date during 1995 to 2012. Through the comprehensive evaluation, we select the quadratic equation to forecast the automobile sales in 2015, there is a conclusion of overcapacity's crisis indeed. Finally, the article puts forward some countermeasures to reduce the gap between the expected sales and planned capacity, and to improve the au-tomobile industry's competitiveness.