CAJ | 학술논문

目前我国林产品物流尚处于民间自发活动的阶段，林区政府需要预测未来林产品运输量，以便更好地指导林业生产活动.基于此目的，采用了C＃.net开发了GM （1，1）预测计算程序，在已知历史数据较少的情况下，仍然可以完成预测工作.以将乐县为例，预测值与实际值平均相对误差为0.40％.实践证明：GM （1，1）模型适用于县级规模的林产品物流运输量的短期预测，能够帮助林区政府更好地应对运力不足或运力过剩的问题，制定扶持政策，引导林业物流企业有序发展.
목전아국림산품물류상처우민간자발활동적계단，림구정부수요예측미래림산품운수량，이편경호지지도임업생산활동.기우차목적，채용료C＃.net개발료GM （1，1）예측계산정서，재이지역사수거교소적정황하，잉연가이완성예측공작.이장악현위례，예측치여실제치평균상대오차위0.40％.실천증명：GM （1，1）모형괄용우현급규모적림산품물류운수량적단기예측，능구방조림구정부경호지응대운력불족혹운력과잉적문제，제정부지정책，인도임업물류기업유서발전.
At present , China's forest product logistics is still in the stage of spontaneous folk activities , so the government of the forest area needs to predict the future transportation volume of the forest product in order to guide the forestry production activities more effectively . For this purpose , this study adopted C# . Net and developed the calculation program based on GM (1 , 1 ) mathematical model , which can complete the prediction work even if the known conditions are limited . Taking Jiangle County as an example , the average relative error between the prediction value and the actual value is 0.40% . The practical application has proved that:GM (1 , 1 ) model is applicable to the short-term prediction of the forest product logistics transportation volume in the county - level cities;it can help the government of the forest area respond to the problem of transportation-capacity insufficiency or excess better , so that appropriate supportive policies can be made to guide the orderly development of the forestry logistics companies .