农业工程学报
農業工程學報
농업공정학보
2014年
14期
78-86
,共9页
冯禹%崔宁博%魏新平%赵璐%王君勤
馮禹%崔寧博%魏新平%趙璐%王君勤
풍우%최저박%위신평%조로%왕군근
蒸散%农作物%水分管理%川中丘陵区%参考作物蒸散量%时空变化%成因分析%通径分析
蒸散%農作物%水分管理%川中丘陵區%參攷作物蒸散量%時空變化%成因分析%通徑分析
증산%농작물%수분관리%천중구릉구%삼고작물증산량%시공변화%성인분석%통경분석
evapotranspiration%crops%water management%hilly area of central Sichuan%reference crop evapotranspiration%temporal and spatial distribution%causes analysis%path analysis
为深入认识川中丘陵区参考作物蒸散量（reference crop evapotranspiration, ET0）变化特征，使用联合国粮农组织1998年推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算川中丘陵区13个气象站点近52 a（1961-2012年）的逐日ET0，利用GIS克里金插值法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析川中丘陵区ET0时空变化特征；在此基础上，使用基于通径分析原理的指标敏感性分析方法研究ET0的变化成因。结果表明：近52 a来川中丘陵区ET0年际间整体下降明显，ET0年内变化呈单峰曲线，主要集中在每年3-10月，占全年ET0的85.82%；ET0空间分布整体上呈现自东北、东南向中部递减趋势；在指标敏感性分析中，分别去掉日照时数（n）、风速（u2）、相对湿度（relative humidity ， RH）和温度（T）后，剩余3个气象因子对回归方程估测可靠程度（E）由0.89分别降为0.596、0.81、0.84和0.88，表明ET0对n最为敏感，其次为u2、RH和T。因此，日照时数和风速是引起川中丘陵区ET0变化的最主要气象因子，相对湿度次之，温度对ET0的影响最小。当使用各季度平均温度代替逐日温度计算ET0时，各季度估算结果同实际计算结果间决定系数分别达到了0.93、0.97、0.96和0.94，表明估算精度较高，因此在资料缺乏情况下可以使用各季度平均温度替代温度计算ET0。该研究可为川中丘陵区的农田水分管理提供科学依据。
為深入認識川中丘陵區參攷作物蒸散量（reference crop evapotranspiration, ET0）變化特徵，使用聯閤國糧農組織1998年推薦的Penman-Monteith公式計算川中丘陵區13箇氣象站點近52 a（1961-2012年）的逐日ET0，利用GIS剋裏金插值法和Mann-Kendall趨勢檢驗法分析川中丘陵區ET0時空變化特徵；在此基礎上，使用基于通徑分析原理的指標敏感性分析方法研究ET0的變化成因。結果錶明：近52 a來川中丘陵區ET0年際間整體下降明顯，ET0年內變化呈單峰麯線，主要集中在每年3-10月，佔全年ET0的85.82%；ET0空間分佈整體上呈現自東北、東南嚮中部遞減趨勢；在指標敏感性分析中，分彆去掉日照時數（n）、風速（u2）、相對濕度（relative humidity ， RH）和溫度（T）後，剩餘3箇氣象因子對迴歸方程估測可靠程度（E）由0.89分彆降為0.596、0.81、0.84和0.88，錶明ET0對n最為敏感，其次為u2、RH和T。因此，日照時數和風速是引起川中丘陵區ET0變化的最主要氣象因子，相對濕度次之，溫度對ET0的影響最小。噹使用各季度平均溫度代替逐日溫度計算ET0時，各季度估算結果同實際計算結果間決定繫數分彆達到瞭0.93、0.97、0.96和0.94，錶明估算精度較高，因此在資料缺乏情況下可以使用各季度平均溫度替代溫度計算ET0。該研究可為川中丘陵區的農田水分管理提供科學依據。
위심입인식천중구릉구삼고작물증산량（reference crop evapotranspiration, ET0）변화특정，사용연합국량농조직1998년추천적Penman-Monteith공식계산천중구릉구13개기상참점근52 a（1961-2012년）적축일ET0，이용GIS극리금삽치법화Mann-Kendall추세검험법분석천중구릉구ET0시공변화특정；재차기출상，사용기우통경분석원리적지표민감성분석방법연구ET0적변화성인。결과표명：근52 a래천중구릉구ET0년제간정체하강명현，ET0년내변화정단봉곡선，주요집중재매년3-10월，점전년ET0적85.82%；ET0공간분포정체상정현자동북、동남향중부체감추세；재지표민감성분석중，분별거도일조시수（n）、풍속（u2）、상대습도（relative humidity ， RH）화온도（T）후，잉여3개기상인자대회귀방정고측가고정도（E）유0.89분별강위0.596、0.81、0.84화0.88，표명ET0대n최위민감，기차위u2、RH화T。인차，일조시수화풍속시인기천중구릉구ET0변화적최주요기상인자，상대습도차지，온도대ET0적영향최소。당사용각계도평균온도대체축일온도계산ET0시，각계도고산결과동실제계산결과간결정계수분별체도료0.93、0.97、0.96화0.94，표명고산정도교고，인차재자료결핍정황하가이사용각계도평균온도체대온도계산ET0。해연구가위천중구릉구적농전수분관리제공과학의거。
Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is of importance to estimate crop water requirement and make plans of irrigation scheme. Research on temporal and spatial variation of ET0 is important for regional agricultural water management and regional water allocation. The purpose of this study was to make a better understanding of the variation characteristics of ET0 in hilly area of central Sichuan where the agricultural water mostly depends on irrigation. Penman-Monteith equation recommended by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 1998 was applied to calculate the daily ET0 for 13 meteorological stations within 52 years (1961-2012). Kriging of GIS was introduced to draw the maps of ET0 that could present a clear spatial distribution of ET0. Mann-Kendall trend test was used to analyze temporal distribution characteristics of ET0, and the causes of ET0 change were manifested by sensitivity analysis based on path analysis method. The results showed that:annual ET0 change had a conspicuous decreasing trend in hilly area of central Sichuan in the past 52 years, especially in Langzhong,Yibin and Ziyang station where ET0 decreased significantly (α=0.05). However, in Mianyang station, ET0 increased within 52 years;The temporal distribution characteristics indicated that, during 1961-1979, ET0 increased gradually then decreased until 2003. The trend of ET0 change in a year was a single peak curve, and the change accounting for 85.82%of the year was mostly between March and October. The maximum of ET0 was 3.46 mm/d in July and the minimum was 0.79 mm/d in December. The spatial distribution of ET0 revealed that ET0 decreased gradually from northeast and southeast to the center. During 1961-1970 and 1981-1990, there were several sudden changes in spatial distribution. Compared with the average value within 52 years, the ET0 was smaller in Bazhong station but bigger in Ziyang and Neijiang station. Considering the uneven distribution of ET0 within a year and the sudden changes, the conclusion could be attained that the variation characteristics of ET0 in hilly area of central Sichuan was influenced by the change of weather greatly. The path analysis between meteorological factors and ET0 revealed that the path coefficient of sunshine duration (n), wind speed (u2), relative humidity (RH) and temperature (T) were 0.61, 0.37,-0.25 and 0.019, respectively. Their overall contribution to R2 were 0.48, 0.28, 0.13 and 0.001, respectively. When n, u2, RH and T were removed respectively in sensitivity analysis, R2 values were reduced from 0.89 to 0.596, 0.81,0.84 and 0.88, respectively. R2 had the biggest change when n was removed, and thus ET0 was more sensitive to n and n was the key meteorological factor affecting ET0 in hilly area of central Sichuan. The coefficient of determination between actual and estimated ET0 in four quarters was 0.93, 0.97, 0.96 and 0.94, respectively, when average quarter temperature instead of T was used to estimate ET0, which indicated that it was reasonable to use average quarter temperature to calculate ET0 when meteorological data in hilly areas of central Sichuan was lacking. This research provided information for agricultural production in hilly area of central Sichuan.
