CAJ | 학술논문

同一区域内两风电场的风矢量(风速和风向)均存在相关性和条件相依性，在含风电场的电力系统可靠性评估中模拟具有相关性和条件相依性的风速和风向样本是进行可靠性评估的先决条件。文中根据Copula理论建立两风电场风速与风速、风向与风向间的相关性模型，采用经验分布和 Weibull分布模型，以及聚类、变换和插值方法建立风速与风向的条件相依模型，进而建立具有相关性和条件相依性的两风电场风速和风向数据生成模型。采用实际观测风速和风向数据对所提方法和模型进行了验证，结果表明模拟数据能够保持与原始数据相同的相关性、条件相依性、统计特性和分布特性，从而证明了模型的正确性和实用性。将该模型应用到 IEEE-RBTS 可靠性测试系统中，测试结果表明上述模型可直接应用于风电场可靠性效益和影响分析中。
동일구역내량풍전장적풍시량(풍속화풍향)균존재상관성화조건상의성，재함풍전장적전력계통가고성평고중모의구유상관성화조건상의성적풍속화풍향양본시진행가고성평고적선결조건。문중근거Copula이론건립량풍전장풍속여풍속、풍향여풍향간적상관성모형，채용경험분포화 Weibull분포모형，이급취류、변환화삽치방법건립풍속여풍향적조건상의모형，진이건립구유상관성화조건상의성적량풍전장풍속화풍향수거생성모형。채용실제관측풍속화풍향수거대소제방법화모형진행료험증，결과표명모의수거능구보지여원시수거상동적상관성、조건상의성、통계특성화분포특성，종이증명료모형적정학성화실용성。장해모형응용도 IEEE-RBTS 가고성측시계통중，측시결과표명상술모형가직접응용우풍전장가고성효익화영향분석중。
There exist correlation and conditional dependence in wind vectors (wind speed and wind direction) between two adjacent wind farms.Simulation of the wind speed and wind direction samples with correlation and conditional dependence in reliability evaluation of a system with a wind farm is the prerequisite for the reliability evaluation.A wind speed correlation model and a wind direction correlation model are built by using copula theory.Based on empirical distribution and Weibull distribution models,the clustering method,transformation method,and interpolation method are used to build the conditional dependence model of wind speed and wind direction.Then,a wind speed and wind direction generation model considering their correlation and conditional dependence is obtained.The proposed model is verified using observed wind data,the results showing that simulated and observed wind data are identical in correlation,conditional dependence,statistics characteristics, and distribution characteristics.In other words,the results have verified the validity and availability of the proposed model. Finally,the proposed model is applied to an IEEE-RBTS test system for reliability analysis of the combined generation system with wind farms.The wake effect is also considered in the reliability evaluation process.The results show that the proposed model can be used to directly evaluate the reliability benefits and analyze the impact of wind farms.