CAJ | 학술논문

利用梅州市气象观测站1952-2012年低温、霜冻资料，采用线性回归、小波分析和Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法，分析梅州市近61 a来的低温、霜冻气候变化特征。结果表明，梅州低温、霜冻日数呈明显减少趋势；12月和1月是低温、霜冻天气出现最多的2个月份，占总日数的70％以上。初低温日和初霜冻日存在延后趋势，终低温日和终霜冻日存在提前趋势。20世纪80年代初低温、霜冻强度开始减弱，低温、霜冻日数也在此时期发生突变减少。低温日数存在2-4a、7a和10a的周期变化，霜冻日数存在2-4a、6-7a和10a的周期变化。根据低温、霜冻天气出现的主要两类天气形势，再结合单站气象要素特征，归纳总结低温、霜冻天气的预报指标和经验。
이용매주시기상관측참1952-2012년저온、상동자료，채용선성회귀、소파분석화Mann-Kendall비삼수검험등방법，분석매주시근61 a래적저온、상동기후변화특정。결과표명，매주저온、상동일수정명현감소추세；12월화1월시저온、상동천기출현최다적2개월빈，점총일수적70％이상。초저온일화초상동일존재연후추세，종저온일화종상동일존재제전추세。20세기80년대초저온、상동강도개시감약，저온、상동일수야재차시기발생돌변감소。저온일수존재2-4a、7a화10a적주기변화，상동일수존재2-4a、6-7a화10a적주기변화。근거저온、상동천기출현적주요량류천기형세，재결합단참기상요소특정，귀납총결저온、상동천기적예보지표화경험。
By using methods of linear regression, wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendal nonparametric test, the climate characteristics of the low temperature day(LTD, with the lowest temperature≤5 ℃) and frost day(FD) during 1952-2012 in Meizhou have been studied. Results show that the LTD and FD in Meizhou appear a decreasing trend over the past 61 years. Low temperature and frost weathers mostly occur in December and January, and both the numbers of LTD and FD in these two months are more than 70% of total. The beginning dates of low temperature and frost show a delaying trend, and both of their ending dates present an earlier trend. In the early 1980s, both the low temperature and frost strengths decreased, also the abrupt reductions for LTD and FD occurred.LTD presented 2-4 a, 7 a, and 10 a period oscillations,and FD had 2-4 a, 6-7 a and 10 a period oscillations.According to the meteorological elements of local weather station, some of low temperature and frost forecasting indicators and techniques are summarized for local weather forecast.