CAJ | 학술논문

利用甘肃省1960～2011年逐日降水量及1984～2011年暴洪灾害的灾情资料，分析了甘肃省强降水变化特征及其对社会经济的影响。结果表明：（1）近52 a来，甘肃省降水量整体上呈逐年减少趋势，空间上由东南向西北递减；（2）河西年降水在1986年以后均匀度明显下降，而河东在20世纪70年代后期降水时间分布很不均匀、80年代后期较均匀，其它时间变化不大；河西5～9月降水在20世纪80年代后期到90年代前期分布最不均匀，河东20世纪90年代后期到21世纪初期降水不均匀性有所增加，此后逐渐减小；（3）河西西部一直是近50 a甘肃降水量分布最不均匀的地区，20世纪70年代及21世纪以来不均匀度明显较高；（4）20世纪80年代以来，甘肃河西强降水明显增加，而河东在21世纪初有短时段的增加，2008年以后又逐渐减少；（5）甘肃省暴洪灾害的频次及其造成的直接经济损失均呈增加趋势，而因暴洪灾害造成的死亡人数在减少，2009年以后略有增加。
이용감숙성1960～2011년축일강수량급1984～2011년폭홍재해적재정자료，분석료감숙성강강수변화특정급기대사회경제적영향。결과표명：（1）근52 a래，감숙성강수량정체상정축년감소추세，공간상유동남향서북체감；（2）하서년강수재1986년이후균균도명현하강，이하동재20세기70년대후기강수시간분포흔불균균、80년대후기교균균，기타시간변화불대；하서5～9월강수재20세기80년대후기도90년대전기분포최불균균，하동20세기90년대후기도21세기초기강수불균균성유소증가，차후축점감소；（3）하서서부일직시근50 a감숙강수량분포최불균균적지구，20세기70년대급21세기이래불균균도명현교고；（4）20세기80년대이래，감숙하서강강수명현증가，이하동재21세기초유단시단적증가，2008년이후우축점감소；（5）감숙성폭홍재해적빈차급기조성적직접경제손실균정증가추세，이인폭홍재해조성적사망인수재감소，2009년이후략유증가。
Based on daily precipitation data during 1960 -2011 and flood disasters data in Gansu Province during 1984 -2011,the spatial and temporal distributions of heavy rainfall and its impact on social economy were analyzed.The results were as follows:(1 ) The annual precipitation in Gansu showed a declining trend from 1960 to 201 1 as a whole,and the precipitation decreased gradually from southeast to northwest.(2)The evenness of precipitation in time domain in Gansu Province was different during 1962 -2001, and that in Hexi was distinctly lower than that in Hedong.The evenness in annual rainfall in Hexi region decreased obviously since 1986,and the rainfall from May to September from the late 1980s to the early 1990s was the most uneven,while the temporal distribu-tion in annual rainfall of Hedong region was uneven in the late 1970s and even in the late 1980s,and the unevenness of rainfall from May to September from the late 1990s to the early 21st century increased.(3)The temporal distribution of rainfall in western Hexi was always the most uneven in Gansu Province in the past 50 years,and the unevenness of rainfall in the 1970s and the 2000s was higher significantly.(4)Since the 1980s,heavy rainfall in Hexi region increased significantly,while that in Hedong region had a briefly in-crease in the early 21st century,and dropped again since 2008.(5)The frequency of flash flood and the direct economic losses caused by flash flood disasters in Gansu Province showed a increasing trend,and the death persons caused by flash flood declined,but rose slightly after 2009.