干旱气象
榦旱氣象
간한기상
GANSU METEOROLOGY
2014年
3期
373-381
,共9页
湖南%雨日%时空分布%空间分型%气候变化
湖南%雨日%時空分佈%空間分型%氣候變化
호남%우일%시공분포%공간분형%기후변화
Hu’nan%rain days%spatial-temporal distribution%spatial patterns%climatic change
采用湖南省的88个地面气象站点逐日降水资料，运用经验正交分解（EOF）、线性回归、小波分析等方法分析了湖南雨日的空间变化特征和气候变化趋势，以及湖南雨日与降水量的关系。结果表明：湖南雨日空间分布大致是南多北少，平原少于山区丘陵区，呈现出2条少雨日带、4个多雨日区；过去51 a湖南大部分地区雨日呈减少趋势，对比雨日的空间分布发现，未来湖南雨日的空间分布差异可能减小；湖南雨日存在明显的年代际变化，1970年代和2000年代分别为近51 a来雨日最多和最少的10 a。湖南雨日的空间分型既有全区一致性，也存在着东南部-西北部、湘中地区与周围地区及东部-西部相反变化的差异。全区一致型雨日呈下降趋势，存在3a、8a和21a 周期变化。东南-西北反向型雨日东南（西北）呈下降（上升）趋势，存在3a、6a和18a周期变化。湖南雨日与降水量呈正相关关系，且雨日和降水量的时空变化特征非常相似。
採用湖南省的88箇地麵氣象站點逐日降水資料，運用經驗正交分解（EOF）、線性迴歸、小波分析等方法分析瞭湖南雨日的空間變化特徵和氣候變化趨勢，以及湖南雨日與降水量的關繫。結果錶明：湖南雨日空間分佈大緻是南多北少，平原少于山區丘陵區，呈現齣2條少雨日帶、4箇多雨日區；過去51 a湖南大部分地區雨日呈減少趨勢，對比雨日的空間分佈髮現，未來湖南雨日的空間分佈差異可能減小；湖南雨日存在明顯的年代際變化，1970年代和2000年代分彆為近51 a來雨日最多和最少的10 a。湖南雨日的空間分型既有全區一緻性，也存在著東南部-西北部、湘中地區與週圍地區及東部-西部相反變化的差異。全區一緻型雨日呈下降趨勢，存在3a、8a和21a 週期變化。東南-西北反嚮型雨日東南（西北）呈下降（上升）趨勢，存在3a、6a和18a週期變化。湖南雨日與降水量呈正相關關繫，且雨日和降水量的時空變化特徵非常相似。
채용호남성적88개지면기상참점축일강수자료，운용경험정교분해（EOF）、선성회귀、소파분석등방법분석료호남우일적공간변화특정화기후변화추세，이급호남우일여강수량적관계。결과표명：호남우일공간분포대치시남다북소，평원소우산구구릉구，정현출2조소우일대、4개다우일구；과거51 a호남대부분지구우일정감소추세，대비우일적공간분포발현，미래호남우일적공간분포차이가능감소；호남우일존재명현적년대제변화，1970년대화2000년대분별위근51 a래우일최다화최소적10 a。호남우일적공간분형기유전구일치성，야존재착동남부-서북부、상중지구여주위지구급동부-서부상반변화적차이。전구일치형우일정하강추세，존재3a、8a화21a 주기변화。동남-서북반향형우일동남（서북）정하강（상승）추세，존재3a、6a화18a주기변화。호남우일여강수량정정상관관계，차우일화강수량적시공변화특정비상상사。
Based on daily precipitation data of 88 meteorological stations in Hu’nan during 1960-2010,the spatial and temporal varia-tion and climatic change tendency of rain days in Hu’nan were analyzed by using EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function),linear regres-sion and wavelet analysis methods.The results show that rain days were more in the south and mountainous region and less in the north and plain region.There were two less rain days bands and four more rain days centers.The rain days presented deceasing trend in most parts of Hu’nan in past 5 1 years.To contrast the spatial distribution of rain days,the differences of the spatial distribution in Hu’nan might reduce in future.The interdecadal variation of rain days in Hu’nan was obvious.The rain days was most in the 1970s and least in the 2000s.The spatial distribution of rain days was concluded as four main patterns based on the EOF analysis:the whole region consistent type,the southeast and the northwest reverse type,the center and surrounding regions reverse type,as well as the east and west reverse type.For the whole region consistent type,rain days showed a decreasing trend with cycles of quasi-3 years,quasi-8 years and quasi-21 years,while for the southeast and the northwest reverse type,rain days in southeast (northwest)region presented a decreasing (increasing)trend with cycles of quasi-3 years,quasi-6 years and quasi-18 years.There was a positive correlation between rain days and precipitation,which passed 99.9% confidence levels,furthermore,the spatial and temporal variations of rain days and precipitation were very similar.
