CAJ | 학술논문

利用1951～2009年冬季湖南探空和地面观测资料，对湖南冻雨时空分布、过程发生频次、过程持续日数及冻雨的各层气温统计分布特征进行了统计分析，并通过研究提炼了湖南冬季冻雨预报技术指标和空间概念模型。检验和预报应用表明：厚度因子比温度因子判据TS评分高，而厚度与温度因子混合判据评分更高；冻雨预报判据指标结合南方冻雨大气环流空间概念模型在2013年1月湘中以南冻雨过程预报业务应用中，预报效果较好。
이용1951～2009년동계호남탐공화지면관측자료，대호남동우시공분포、과정발생빈차、과정지속일수급동우적각층기온통계분포특정진행료통계분석，병통과연구제련료호남동계동우예보기술지표화공간개념모형。검험화예보응용표명：후도인자비온도인자판거TS평분고，이후도여온도인자혼합판거평분경고；동우예보판거지표결합남방동우대기배류공간개념모형재2013년1월상중이남동우과정예보업무응용중，예보효과교호。
Based on the sounding data and ground observation data in winter during 195 1 -2009 in Hu’nan,the temporal and spatial distribution of freezing rain weathers,the frequencies and the lasting duration of the freezing rain weather in Hu’nan,as well as tem-perature features in each layer under the freezing weather were analyzed firstly.Moreover,the forecast technology indicators and space conceptual model of freezing rain weather in Hu’nan have been refined.The testing results and forecasting application show that the TS score of thickness factor was higher than that of temperature factor,but the mixing factor of thickness and temperature had the highest TS score.The combination of freezing rain forecast criterion indicators and spatial conceptual model of atmospheric circulation of freez-ing rain weathers made good effects in prediction of the freezing rain weather process which occurred in the south region of the middle Hu’nan in January 2013.