CAJ | 학술논문

对河川径流的变异研究不仅有助于掌握变化环境下径流的演变规律，还能提高水文分析、水文模拟以及水文计算结果的准确度。以渭河流域为研究对象，采用启发式分割和近似熵方法，对渭河年径流序列进行了变异诊断，诊断结果表明：林家村以上流域存在1971和1994年2个变异点；张家山以上流域无变异点存在；整个渭河流域存在1969和1993年两个变异点。此外，通过对渭河径流变异归因分析可知，该流域径流变异主要是由气候变化（1971年的El Ni鼻o和1994年的ENSO事件）与人类活动（水利工程建设、流域下垫面的改变以及大量开采地下水和地表水）的共同作用所导致的。
대하천경류적변이연구불부유조우장악변화배경하경류적연변규률，환능제고수문분석、수문모의이급수문계산결과적준학도。이위하류역위연구대상，채용계발식분할화근사적방법，대위하년경류서렬진행료변이진단，진단결과표명：림가촌이상류역존재1971화1994년2개변이점；장가산이상류역무변이점존재；정개위하류역존재1969화1993년량개변이점。차외，통과대위하경류변이귀인분석가지，해류역경류변이주요시유기후변화（1971년적El Ni비o화1994년적ENSO사건）여인류활동（수리공정건설、류역하점면적개변이급대량개채지하수화지표수）적공동작용소도치적。
The study on the variation of runoff not only helps to master the evolvement rule of runoff un -der the background of change climate , but also causes the results of hydrological analysis , hydrological simulation and hydrological calculation to be more accuracy .The object of study in this paper is the Wei River Basin.The heuristic segmentation algorithm and approximate entropy theory are employed to detect the mutation points of the annual runoff in the Wei River basin .The diagnosis results suggest:there are two mutation points , 1972 and 1994 , in the basin above Linjiacun; there are no variation points in the basin above Zhangjiashan; there are two change points , 1970 and 1994, in the Wei River Basin as a whole.Furthermore, the attribution analysis on the variation of runoff indicates that the variation of runoff in this basin is caused by the mutual effects of climate changes ( the El Ni?o of 1972 and the ENSO of 1994 events) and human activities (the construction of water conservancy project , the changes in under-lying surface and excessive exploitation of groundwater and surface water ) .