CAJ | 학술논문

为进行变化环境下区域部门未来用水的不确定性研究，引入经济学中的合作博弈理论，在考虑各用水部门组成的用水联盟机会收益的前提下，依据国家用水总量控制指标，以广东省东江流域及其各分区为例，建立了基于合作博弈的各用水户用水分解模型并对其求解，给出了研究区2020年生产、生活和生态用水的合作博弈核心，即未来流域各用水户基于用水总量控制的用水量合理分配区间。东江流域2020年生产、生活和生态用水控制量区间分别为42.61～62.89亿m3，25.2～42.06亿m3和0.46～9.31亿m3。通过各用水户用水量控制指标集的确定，为用水总量控制下流域未来用水管理目标提供了重要参考。
위진행변화배경하구역부문미래용수적불학정성연구，인입경제학중적합작박혁이론，재고필각용수부문조성적용수련맹궤회수익적전제하，의거국가용수총량공제지표，이광동성동강류역급기각분구위례，건립료기우합작박혁적각용수호용수분해모형병대기구해，급출료연구구2020년생산、생활화생태용수적합작박혁핵심，즉미래류역각용수호기우용수총량공제적용수량합리분배구간。동강류역2020년생산、생활화생태용수공제량구간분별위42.61～62.89억m3，25.2～42.06억m3화0.46～9.31억m3。통과각용수호용수량공제지표집적학정，위용수총량공제하류역미래용수관리목표제공료중요삼고。
The cooperative game theory in economics was introduced into the analysis of future water use uncertainty of regional water use sectors .The cooperative game theory cores of productive , domestic and ecological water supply of the whole Dongjiang River Basin and its sub-regions in Guangdong Province were made and future water use for each sector was allocated in a form of value range based on water de-composition model involving cooperative game theory , considering water opportunity income of water alli-ance consisting of each water use sector under national total water use control indicator .The water con-sumption index sets of the whole Dongjiang River basin and its sub regions were provided , and the control amount intervals for productive , domestic and ecological water use in the Dongjiang River basin in 2020 are 4.26~6.29 billion m3 , 4.26~6.29 billion m3 , 2.52~4.21 billion m3 , 0.046~0.93 billion m3 , respectively .This provides an important reference for future water management of the Dongjiang River ba -sin under water volume control .