CAJ | 학술논문

极端天气气候事件监测与预测研究进展及其应用综述
겁단천기기후사건감측여예측연구진전급기응용종술
Research Progresses on Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Operational Applications in Climate Monitoring and Prediction

万方数据

气象氣象 기상
METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY
2014年 7期 860-874 ,共15页

任福民%高辉%刘绿柳%宋艳玲%高荣%王遵娅%龚志强%王永光%陈丽娟%李清泉%柯宗建%孙丞虎%贾小龙

임복민%고휘%류록류%송염령%고영%왕준아%공지강%왕영광%진려연%리청천%가종건%손승호%가소룡

极端天气气候事件%区域性极端事件%研究进展%气候监测%气候预测%业务应用極耑天氣氣候事件%區域性極耑事件%研究進展%氣候鑑測%氣候預測%業務應用
겁단천기기후사건%구역성겁단사건%연구진전%기후감측%기후예측%업무응용
extreme weather and climate events%regional extreme event%research progress%climate moni-toring%climate prediction%operational application

提极端天气气候事件（简称“极端事件”）分为单站极端事件和区域性极端事件。本文回顾了极端事件的研究进展，首先回顾了单站极端温度、极端降水和干旱事件的观测研究及相关指数，进而对近年来不断增多的区域性极端事件研究做了简要回顾，最后还回顾了极端事件气候预测研究进展。同时，对国内外在极端事件气候监测和预测业务现状进行了初步总结，并指出：在极端事件气候监测方面中国的业务产品较丰富，并率先开展了针对区域性极端事件的监测业务，但在产品表现形式上缺乏统一组织，特别是英文产品表现力严重不足；在极端事件气候预测方面，国家气候中心发展了两种方法：一个是基于物理统计的BP-CCA和OSR的干旱预测方法，另一个基于国家气候中心月动力延伸预报模式（DERF）的高温预测方法。最后，对极端事件监测和预测业务发展及相关科学问题给出展望，指出应根据极端事件的业务需求继续加强相关研究和业务能力建设。
제겁단천기기후사건（간칭“겁단사건”）분위단참겁단사건화구역성겁단사건。본문회고료겁단사건적연구진전，수선회고료단참겁단온도、겁단강수화간한사건적관측연구급상관지수，진이대근년래불단증다적구역성겁단사건연구주료간요회고，최후환회고료겁단사건기후예측연구진전。동시，대국내외재겁단사건기후감측화예측업무현상진행료초보총결，병지출：재겁단사건기후감측방면중국적업무산품교봉부，병솔선개전료침대구역성겁단사건적감측업무，단재산품표현형식상결핍통일조직，특별시영문산품표현력엄중불족；재겁단사건기후예측방면，국가기후중심발전료량충방법：일개시기우물리통계적BP-CCA화OSR적간한예측방법，령일개기우국가기후중심월동력연신예보모식（DERF）적고온예측방법。최후，대겁단사건감측화예측업무발전급상관과학문제급출전망，지출응근거겁단사건적업무수구계속가강상관연구화업무능력건설。
Weather and climate extreme events can be divided into individual extreme events and regional extreme events.This paper reviews the progress of the studies on extreme events.Firstly,the paper pays attentions to observation study on temperature extremes,precipitation extremes,droughts and the related indices at individual station,and then reviews the study about the increasing regional extreme events in re-cent years and also reviews the study progress in predicting climatic extreme events.Meanwhile,a summa-ry of the current climate monitoring and prediction operations of extreme events in China and in the world has been preliminarily carried out.The results show that the operational products in extreme event moni-toring are very rich in China with a leading position in the field of regional extreme event monitoring,but in the form of products there is not a unified organization,especially in products in English.Regarding the climatic prediction of extreme events National Climate Centre has developed two methods:One is a BP-CCA and OSR drought prediction method based on physical statistics,and the other is high temperature prediction method based on the National Climate Centre Monthly Dynamic Extended Range Forecast (DERF)model.Finally,an outlook of climate monitoring and prediction operations of extreme events and related scientific issues is given,and a stress is made on continuing to strengthen the frontier researches and operational capacity-building of extreme events in the future.