CAJ | 학술논문

针对经典的人口老龄化预测模型存在的方法本身误差和思路缺陷等局限，本文将非参数方法运用于我国人口老龄化问题研究中，结合核估计和局部线性估计的理论，建立了非参数自回归模型，与AR（1）模型预测结果进行对比，预测精度更高，则本文选择非参数自回归模型对我国人口老龄化趋势进行预测。最后，对我国人口老龄化进行年龄组别和城乡结构分析，针对我国从2004年开始出现人口老龄化“城乡倒置”的现状，从人口迁移等角度分析原因，并提出了我国人口老龄化的对策以及平衡城乡人口老龄化的政策建议。
침대경전적인구노령화예측모형존재적방법본신오차화사로결함등국한，본문장비삼수방법운용우아국인구노령화문제연구중，결합핵고계화국부선성고계적이론，건립료비삼수자회귀모형，여AR（1）모형예측결과진행대비，예측정도경고，칙본문선택비삼수자회귀모형대아국인구노령화추세진행예측。최후，대아국인구노령화진행년령조별화성향결구분석，침대아국종2004년개시출현인구노령화“성향도치”적현상，종인구천이등각도분석원인，병제출료아국인구노령화적대책이급평형성향인구노령화적정책건의。
Due to the traditional prediction models of population aging trend have bias of the method or drawbacks of the idea itself, this paper applied methods of nonparametric regression to analyze China's population aging problem, based on the the-orem of Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimation and the local polynomial regression. We established the nonparametric auto-re-gression model,which has higher prediction precision compared with the time series AR(1) model,so chose this model to pre-dict the population aging trend. At the same time,we analyzed the age and urban/rural structure,and the reasons of the current situation of “urban-rural inversion” that started on 2004 from the main perspective of population migration. Finally , put for-ward policy proposals on population aging problem,and gave advice on how to balance the development of population aging in urban and rural area.