CAJ | 학술논문

依照鄱阳湖流域79个国家气象站的逐月降水资料（1961～2010年），基于 BCC-CSM全球气候系统模式预估数据（2014～2050年），对鄱阳湖流域降水变化趋势和空间分布变化趋势进行分析。选取赣江外洲站1961～2010年逐日径流量和1960～2010年年代径流量、输沙量数据，利用 HBV水文模型、SPSS统计软件对赣江流域面雨量及径流量进行相关性分析，探讨降水特征对水文过程的驱动性。结果表明：1961～2010年间鄱阳湖流域降水量总体略呈上升趋势，降水日数呈下降趋势，降水强度增加、降水时间分布不均匀性更加明显，旱涝等极端事件发生更为频繁；年内变化特征为分布不均匀，以4～6月为汛期，其中6月降水量最大；空间分布特征总体表现为东部降水大于西部，丘陵地区降水大于平原地区；降水变化为径流量、输沙量变化等水文响应的主要驱动力，赣江流域面雨量及径流量呈显著线性相关，相关系数高达0．909。未来37年降水呈现略上升趋势，但趋势不显著。若鄱阳湖流域长期存在高能源需求及高温室气体排放，则洪涝灾害发生将更为频繁。研究为预测鄱阳湖流域水资源科学管理提供科学依据。
의조파양호류역79개국가기상참적축월강수자료（1961～2010년），기우 BCC-CSM전구기후계통모식예고수거（2014～2050년），대파양호류역강수변화추세화공간분포변화추세진행분석。선취공강외주참1961～2010년축일경류량화1960～2010년년대경류량、수사량수거，이용 HBV수문모형、SPSS통계연건대공강류역면우량급경류량진행상관성분석，탐토강수특정대수문과정적구동성。결과표명：1961～2010년간파양호류역강수량총체략정상승추세，강수일수정하강추세，강수강도증가、강수시간분포불균균성경가명현，한로등겁단사건발생경위빈번；년내변화특정위분포불균균，이4～6월위신기，기중6월강수량최대；공간분포특정총체표현위동부강수대우서부，구릉지구강수대우평원지구；강수변화위경류량、수사량변화등수문향응적주요구동력，공강류역면우량급경류량정현저선성상관，상관계수고체0．909。미래37년강수정현략상승추세，단추세불현저。약파양호류역장기존재고능원수구급고온실기체배방，칙홍로재해발생장경위빈번。연구위예측파양호류역수자원과학관리제공과학의거。
Based on annual precipitation observed data of the 79 county and city weather stations located in Poyang Lake basin during 1961~ 2010,variation characteristics of annual precipitation in Poyang Lake Ba-sin were studied;hydrological processes drive was explored.National Climate Center of BCC-the CSM global climate system model forecast data (2014~2050)was adopted to analyze the tendency of variation and spatial distribution of precipitation in Poyang Lake Basin.Select net flows in 1961~2010,and 1960~2010 annual sediment load flow's data in Gan River Waizhou Station,HBV hydrological model,SPSS were used to rainfall analysis the correlation between the net flow and runoff,the characteristics of precipitation drivers of hydrological processes were explored.The results show:precipitation trend in Poyang Lake Ba-sin is slightly upward during1961~2010,the number of days of precipitation is downward,precipitation in-tensity is increased,and the heterogeneity of precipitation time distribution is more significant.Droughts and floods and other extreme events will happen more frequently.Variation of the year was uneven,with April-June as the flood season,in which the maximum rainfall in June;spatial distribution of precipitation in the eastern is greater than the western hilly areas.Precipitation change is the main driving force of the runoff and sediment load changes in the hydrological response.Rainfall and net flows were significant linear correlation in Gan River Basin area.Precipitation in the next 37 years show a slightly upward trend,but the trend was not significant.The study is to provide a scientific basis for the prediction of Poyang Lake Basin possible future disasters such as floods and drought.