系统工程与电子技术
繫統工程與電子技術
계통공정여전자기술
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND ELECTRONICS
2014年
8期
1573-1579
,共7页
飞机%研制费用%组合预测%费用预测
飛機%研製費用%組閤預測%費用預測
비궤%연제비용%조합예측%비용예측
aircraft%development cost%combination forecasting%cost prediction
针对飞机研制费用预测样本数据较少、影响因素复杂，单一预测方法预测质量不高的问题，采用组合预测方法预测飞机研制费用。组合了径向基函数（radial basis function，RBF）神经网络、格拉姆施密特回归、偏最小二乘回归（partial least squares regression，PLSR）3种预测方法，基于样本数据建立了飞机研制费用组合预测模型，并与单项预测进行了对比分析。结果表明，组合预测具有满意和稳定的预测精度，并可以降低单项预测的质量风险，是飞机研制费用预测可靠而有效的方法。
針對飛機研製費用預測樣本數據較少、影響因素複雜，單一預測方法預測質量不高的問題，採用組閤預測方法預測飛機研製費用。組閤瞭徑嚮基函數（radial basis function，RBF）神經網絡、格拉姆施密特迴歸、偏最小二乘迴歸（partial least squares regression，PLSR）3種預測方法，基于樣本數據建立瞭飛機研製費用組閤預測模型，併與單項預測進行瞭對比分析。結果錶明，組閤預測具有滿意和穩定的預測精度，併可以降低單項預測的質量風險，是飛機研製費用預測可靠而有效的方法。
침대비궤연제비용예측양본수거교소、영향인소복잡，단일예측방법예측질량불고적문제，채용조합예측방법예측비궤연제비용。조합료경향기함수（radial basis function，RBF）신경망락、격랍모시밀특회귀、편최소이승회귀（partial least squares regression，PLSR）3충예측방법，기우양본수거건립료비궤연제비용조합예측모형，병여단항예측진행료대비분석。결과표명，조합예측구유만의화은정적예측정도，병가이강저단항예측적질량풍험，시비궤연제비용예측가고이유효적방법。
To address the problems of scarce sample data,complex influence factors and low forecasting quality of a single prediction method in predicting the aircraft development costs,a combination forecasting method is adopted.Based on the sample data,the radial basis function (RBF)artificial neural network,Gram-Schmidt regression and partial least squares regression (PLSR)are combined to construct the combination fore-casting model,which is also compared with the single prediction method.The results show that the combination forecasting method has satisfactory and stable prediction accuracy,and it can reduce the quality risk of the single prediction method,so it is a reliable and effective method for aircraft development costs prediction.
