CAJ | 학술논문

利用山西71个台站逐日气温资料和 NCEP 500 hPa 高度场、海平面气压场、海温格点场再分析资料，采用Kendall-tau 非参数方法、Mann-Kendall 突变检验和相关分析法，研究山西1961-2010年寒潮的变化特征。结果表明，1961年以来，山西寒潮日数呈减少趋势，但存在区域差异，北部寒潮减少，中部寒潮增加，南部变化不明显。近50年来，山西寒潮强度变化趋势不明显，但年代际差异显著。20世纪90年代以来，山西寒潮初次出现的日期在推迟，而寒潮结束的日期却在提前，这种特征在进入21世纪以后表现更为突出。气候变暖导致山西寒潮频次减少，寒潮开始迟、结束早，全省范围寒潮的极端天气在增加。环流形势相关分析表明，500 hPa高纬度的高度正异常配合乌拉尔山、贝加尔湖附近等的高度负异常与山西寒潮频次密切相关。冬季来自北冰洋、西西伯利亚和东西伯利亚的冷空气是寒潮的主要来源。北大西洋海温场北负南正的偶极子模态与山西寒潮频次有较密切的联系，可作为寒潮预测的信号场。
이용산서71개태참축일기온자료화 NCEP 500 hPa 고도장、해평면기압장、해온격점장재분석자료，채용Kendall-tau 비삼수방법、Mann-Kendall 돌변검험화상관분석법，연구산서1961-2010년한조적변화특정。결과표명，1961년이래，산서한조일수정감소추세，단존재구역차이，북부한조감소，중부한조증가，남부변화불명현。근50년래，산서한조강도변화추세불명현，단년대제차이현저。20세기90년대이래，산서한조초차출현적일기재추지，이한조결속적일기각재제전，저충특정재진입21세기이후표현경위돌출。기후변난도치산서한조빈차감소，한조개시지、결속조，전성범위한조적겁단천기재증가。배류형세상관분석표명，500 hPa고위도적고도정이상배합오랍이산、패가이호부근등적고도부이상여산서한조빈차밀절상관。동계래자북빙양、서서백리아화동서백리아적랭공기시한조적주요래원。북대서양해온장북부남정적우겁자모태여산서한조빈차유교밀절적련계，가작위한조예측적신호장。
In this paper,the cold wave events in Shanxi Province were analyzed using Kendall-tau analysis、Mann-Kendall test and correlation analysis based on the daily temperature data observed by 71 meteorological stations and NCEP reanalysis data.The results show that the days of cold wave were decreased in recent 50 years,but the change display regional differences:reduced in Northern, increased in central region and southern did not change significantly. The intensity of cold wave did not change significantly in Shanxi Province . The date of first appeared of cold wave was postpone,meanwhile,the date of final was postpone,and the feature is more prominent in the 21st century. Warming leads to decrease of the frequency of cold wave, and cold wave start late, end early. Moreover, the frequency of province-wide cold wave, such extreme weather was increased. There was significant correlation between the frequency of cold wave in Shanxi Province and the positive anomaly of height at high latitudes coordinate the negative anomalies of height at Ural Mountains, Lake Baikal etc. in 500hPa height field. The cold air come from the Arctic Ocean, West Siberia and the East Siberian in winter is major source of cold wave. The dipole mode in North Atlantic sea surface temperature field contact closely with the cold wave in Shanxi Province, it may act as predicted signal field.