CAJ | 학술논문

备用容量规划对电力系统的异常状态和极端损失情形敏感，而传统的基于整体均值的可靠性成本和收益不能反映决策者对高损失-低概率事件的特别关注。将条件可靠性成本和收益的概念引入长期备用规划问题，在决策者关心的损失范围内进行条件成本收益分析，得到的条件最优备用容量能够反映决策者的风险偏好和经验。进行接受裕度校验，从条件总成本的角度确认是否接受最优备用容量，以及接受或拒绝该方案的确信程度。基于序贯蒙特卡罗模拟计算条件可靠性收益，进而求解模型。对IEEE-RTS79的算例分析表明：决策者的风险偏好对备用容量的规划有显著影响，随着关注的损失范围由整体平均转向极端不利，系统对备用容量的需求持续上升。
비용용량규화대전력계통적이상상태화겁단손실정형민감，이전통적기우정체균치적가고성성본화수익불능반영결책자대고손실-저개솔사건적특별관주。장조건가고성성본화수익적개념인입장기비용규화문제，재결책자관심적손실범위내진행조건성본수익분석，득도적조건최우비용용량능구반영결책자적풍험편호화경험。진행접수유도교험，종조건총성본적각도학인시부접수최우비용용량，이급접수혹거절해방안적학신정도。기우서관몽특잡라모의계산조건가고성수익，진이구해모형。대IEEE-RTS79적산례분석표명：결책자적풍험편호대비용용량적규화유현저영향，수착관주적손실범위유정체평균전향겁단불리，계통대비용용량적수구지속상승。
Reserve requirement evaluation is sensitive to the catastrophic generation deficits and extreme interruption losses, but traditional overall-average-based reliability costs and benefits are flawed to reflect severe and rare damages that decision-makers might particularly concern about. Thus a conditional cost/benefit analysis model was proposed, integrating the concepts of conditional reliability cost and benefit into the optimization of long-term reserve expansion. Recognizing the concerned cost domains of decision-makers by conditional factors, this model can highlight distinctive risk preferences and risk attitudes of decision-makers. We proposed a concept of acceptance margin to verify the final acceptance of the conditional optimal reserve requirements, in terms of conditional total costs. A sequential Mote Carlo simulation based method was used to calculate the costs and benefits, and thus solve the model. An IEEE-RTS79 case study illustrates the necessity of optimizing the reserve conditionally, and shows the significant impacts of personal preferences on reserve requirements. With the concerned cost domains converting into extreme interruption losses from overall-average values, the power system requirement for reserve capacity continuously increases.