CAJ | 학술논문

利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心1961—2011年我国东北地区72个气象站月平均气温资料及 NCEP／NCAR 月平均海平面气压、500 hPa 高度场及200 hPa 与850 hPa 风场再分析资料，对东亚冬季风强度与我国东北地区冬季气温序列经去除线性趋势处理后的变化特征进行对比分析。结果表明：去除线性趋势后，东亚冬季风强度与我国东北地区冬季气温序列的相关系数为－0．69，较原始序列更为显著；两者变化的阶段性较为同步，我国东北地区冬季气温于2004年已转入低温阶段，这与东亚冬季风同时转为偏强阶段关系密切；两者均存在20年左右的长周期，同样存在相近的阶段性短周期；我国东北地区冬季气温的增温变化趋势在1986年前后的增暖性气候突变中起重要作用。东亚冬季风强度与我国东北地区冬季气温年代际信号的相关系数达－0．86，较原始序列年代际相关更为显著；两者的年代际变化存在21．5年左右的共同准周期。东亚冬季风强度与我国东北地区冬季气温的年际变化序列存在4年左右的共同准周期。我国东北地区冬季气温的年际和年代际异常存在与东亚冬季风相关联的200 hPa 东亚急流、500 hPa 东亚大槽、乌拉尔高压、850 hPa 风场、地面西伯利亚高压等的异常背景。
이용중국기상국국가기상신식중심1961—2011년아국동북지구72개기상참월평균기온자료급 NCEP／NCAR 월평균해평면기압、500 hPa 고도장급200 hPa 여850 hPa 풍장재분석자료，대동아동계풍강도여아국동북지구동계기온서렬경거제선성추세처리후적변화특정진행대비분석。결과표명：거제선성추세후，동아동계풍강도여아국동북지구동계기온서렬적상관계수위－0．69，교원시서렬경위현저；량자변화적계단성교위동보，아국동북지구동계기온우2004년이전입저온계단，저여동아동계풍동시전위편강계단관계밀절；량자균존재20년좌우적장주기，동양존재상근적계단성단주기；아국동북지구동계기온적증온변화추세재1986년전후적증난성기후돌변중기중요작용。동아동계풍강도여아국동북지구동계기온년대제신호적상관계수체－0．86，교원시서렬년대제상관경위현저；량자적년대제변화존재21．5년좌우적공동준주기。동아동계풍강도여아국동북지구동계기온적년제변화서렬존재4년좌우적공동준주기。아국동북지구동계기온적년제화년대제이상존재여동아동계풍상관련적200 hPa 동아급류、500 hPa 동아대조、오랍이고압、850 hPa 풍장、지면서백리아고압등적이상배경。
Using monthly mean temperature data from 72 meteorological stations in Northeast China of tempera-ture dataset established by National Meteorological Information Center of CMA and NCEP/NCAR reanaly-sis data from 1961 to 2011,two sequences of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity index and winter air temperature in Northeast China are processed,removing the linear trend.The contrastive analysis is made on the variation characteristics between the winter monsoon intensity index and the winter air temperature in Northeast China. <br> The result shows that two sequences change synchronously and the correlation coefficient after remov-al of linear trend is -0.69,which is greater than that between two original sequences.Under the back-ground of global warming,the increasing trend of winter air temperature in Northeast China makes this re-lationship become weaker.When Northeast China enters the cold phase in 2004,the East Asian winter monsoon intensity index also enhancs at the same time.The warming trend of winter air temperature plays an important role in the warming climate abrupt change in 1986. <br> Correlation coefficient between the inter-decadal signals of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity index and the winter air temperature in Northeast China is -0.86,which is also more obvious compared with the original sequences.A quasi-period of about 21.5 years is found for the inter-decadal variation,the winter air temperature in Northeast China is in the low stage,and the East Asian winter monsoon is in strong phase of this period at present.A 4-year quasi-period is found for the inter-annual variability. <br> The inter-annual and inter-decadal anomalies of the winter air temperature in Northeast China are re-lated with the abnormal background of some systems such as the East Asia westerly jet stream at 200 hPa, the East Asia trough and the high in Ural at 500 hPa,wind at 850 hPa,and the Siberian high on the ground associated with the East Asian winter monsoon.During the inter-decadal low temperature stage, the westerly jet moves further south at 200 hPa,the Siberia high and the East Asia trough is stronger at 500 hPa,the Siberia anticyclone is abnormally stronger,and there is the cyclonic circulation anomaly in western continental Europe at 850 hPa and significant northerly wind anomaly in the north region of the Okhotsk Sea.All of these anomalies reflect the inter-decadal stronger characteristic of the East Asian win-ter monsoon,and vice versa.The possible physical contact between the East Asian winter monsoon inten-sity and the winter air temperature in Northeast China may be consistent associated with inter-decadal on the inter-annual timescale.