CAJ | 학술논문

为了揭示柑橘黄龙病整体疫情入侵、扩散、流行等运动规律，对柑橘木虱种群的数量消长情况进行多年多点的系统监测，同时在柑橘黄龙病果实显症期采用全境式普查方法开展疫情调查。2002-2010年连续8年的监测和普查结果表明，柑橘黄龙病疫情入侵分布呈南重北轻、东高西低的特征，其扩散趋势为自南而北逐年推进，并呈螺旋式上升。疫情长期运动一般需经历入侵上升、高位运行、受控回落周期性变化，其运动周期为10年左右，并建立时序运动模型：P＝-0.0044N2＋0.056N -0.0698（n＝9，r＝0.9552**，r0.01＝0.7977）。应用上述模型进行逐年修补，若预测下年度果园加权发病率在1％以上，则可发布预警。
위료게시감귤황룡병정체역정입침、확산、류행등운동규률，대감귤목슬충군적수량소장정황진행다년다점적계통감측，동시재감귤황룡병과실현증기채용전경식보사방법개전역정조사。2002-2010년련속8년적감측화보사결과표명，감귤황룡병역정입침분포정남중북경、동고서저적특정，기확산추세위자남이북축년추진，병정라선식상승。역정장기운동일반수경력입침상승、고위운행、수공회락주기성변화，기운동주기위10년좌우，병건립시서운동모형：P＝-0.0044N2＋0.056N -0.0698（n＝9，r＝0.9552**，r0.01＝0.7977）。응용상술모형진행축년수보，약예측하년도과완가권발병솔재1％이상，칙가발포예경。
In order to reveal the pattern of invasion and epidemic diffusion of citrus huanglongbing ( HLB ) , population dynamics of diaphorina citri were systematically monitored at several constant sites , and disease general surveys were conducted as well from 2002 to 2010 .The results showed HLB in south and east were more serious than that in north and west respectively during invasion period , while disease spread from south to north with a spire upward trend year by year during diffusion period .A long-term movement cycle of HLB containing invasion , rise, high-order, and decline lasted for 10 years approximately , followed by a epidemic trajectory model: P =-0.0044N2 +0.056N -0.0698 (n =9, r =0.9552**, r0.01 =0.7977).An early warning could be issued based on the model when weighted incidence of HLB exceeded 1%in next year .