CAJ | 학술논문

中国西部地区是著名的气候脆弱区，降水的多寡对其影响十分巨大。尤其是在全球变暖的背景下，西部地区的增暖、增湿异常显著，随之而来的西部地区气候变化也越来越受到关注。本研究主要分析了中国西部地区冬季降水的时空变化特征，结果表明：该地区冬季降水的最主要模态具有全区一致变化的特点，并且在20世纪80年代中期出现了一次显著的年代际突变，突变之后中国西部地区冬季降水明显增多。大气环流和水汽输送的分析结果显示，引起西部地区冬季降水年际和年代际变化的因子有着明显的差异。其中西风带水汽输送是影响西部地区冬季降水年代际变化的主要原因；而影响西部地区冬季降水年际变化的水汽则主要来自于阿拉伯海西南向的水汽输送；而且在不同年代际背景下，影响中国西部地区冬季降水的主要水汽输送通道是一致的。这些说明西部降水的预测必须要分不同时间尺度进行研究，短期气候预测需要综合考虑年际变化、年代际变化以及气候长期变化背景才会更为合理和可行。另外，西部降水年际变化因子在不同年代际背景下的稳定性，为建立该地区持续稳定的年际预测模型奠定了科学基础。
중국서부지구시저명적기후취약구，강수적다과대기영향십분거대。우기시재전구변난적배경하，서부지구적증난、증습이상현저，수지이래적서부지구기후변화야월래월수도관주。본연구주요분석료중국서부지구동계강수적시공변화특정，결과표명：해지구동계강수적최주요모태구유전구일치변화적특점，병차재20세기80년대중기출현료일차현저적년대제돌변，돌변지후중국서부지구동계강수명현증다。대기배류화수기수송적분석결과현시，인기서부지구동계강수년제화년대제변화적인자유착명현적차이。기중서풍대수기수송시영향서부지구동계강수년대제변화적주요원인；이영향서부지구동계강수년제변화적수기칙주요래자우아랍백해서남향적수기수송；이차재불동년대제배경하，영향중국서부지구동계강수적주요수기수송통도시일치적。저사설명서부강수적예측필수요분불동시간척도진행연구，단기기후예측수요종합고필년제변화、년대제변화이급기후장기변화배경재회경위합리화가행。령외，서부강수년제변화인자재불동년대제배경하적은정성，위건립해지구지속은정적년제예측모형전정료과학기출。
Western China is a highly climate-sensitive area, over which anomalous precipitation plays an important role. In this study, the temporal and spatial distribution features of winter precipitation over Western China are analyzed. The results show that the primary mode of winter precipitation over this area showed a homogeneous change and it underwent a significant decadal change around the mid-1980s, after which winter precipitation suddenly increased compared to the amounts before. Analyses of atmospheric circulation and water vapor transportation indicate that different factors influenced decadal variation and inter-annual variation of winter precipitation over Western China. The main cause for the decadal variation was westerly water vapor transportation at mid-to-high latitude; while the primary reason for the interannual variation was southwesterly water vapor transportation from the Arabian Sea. In two different decades, the channel of water vapor transportation for winter precipitation over Western China was consistent. These findings indicate that prediction of winter precipitation over Western China should be studied on different timescales, and it would be more reasonable to synthetically consider the interannual variation, decadal variation, and even long-term variation in climate predictions. In addition, the consistence of interannual influential factors in different decades provides a scientific basis for development of a stable interannual prediction mode for winter precipitation in Western China.