气候与环境研究
氣候與環境研究
기후여배경연구
CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
2014年
4期
463-476
,共14页
唐伟%林朝晖%杨传国%骆利峰
唐偉%林朝暉%楊傳國%駱利峰
당위%림조휘%양전국%락리봉
陆面水文耦合模式%水文模拟不确定性%河道流量%时间解集
陸麵水文耦閤模式%水文模擬不確定性%河道流量%時間解集
륙면수문우합모식%수문모의불학정성%하도류량%시간해집
Coupled land surface and hydrologic model system%Uncertainty of hydrologic simulation%Streamflow%Temporal disaggregation
利用最新的CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）再分析及观测的降水和地表气温资料驱动陆面水文耦合模式CLHMS（Coupled Land surface and Hydrologic Model System），对淮河流域1980～2003年共24年的水文水循环过程进行了模拟，系统评估了CLHMS对淮河流域水文过程的模拟能力及其不确定性。分析结果表明， CLHMS 模式对淮河流域水文过程具有良好的模拟能力，模式尤其对湿润年份流域的水量平衡以及河道流量的季节、年际变化具有很强的模拟能力，而对降水偏少的干旱年份，模式模拟的河道流量通常会高于观测实况，与实况间存在着一定的偏差，而这也是导致CLHMS对流域水文过程模拟能力存在显著年代际差异的主要原因。基于三组不同降水强迫的流域水文过程模拟结果比较表明，降水驱动资料准确与否是陆面水文模拟最主要的不确定性来源之一，正是由于CFSR再分析降水与观测降水之间存在较大的差异，从而导致CFSR降水驱动下模式模拟的淮河流域河道流量与观测存在较大的偏差，其模拟性能相对较差。进一步分析还表明，可以保持较强降水日变化的时间解集方法，也是保证合理模拟流域水文过程的重要因素。
利用最新的CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）再分析及觀測的降水和地錶氣溫資料驅動陸麵水文耦閤模式CLHMS（Coupled Land surface and Hydrologic Model System），對淮河流域1980～2003年共24年的水文水循環過程進行瞭模擬，繫統評估瞭CLHMS對淮河流域水文過程的模擬能力及其不確定性。分析結果錶明， CLHMS 模式對淮河流域水文過程具有良好的模擬能力，模式尤其對濕潤年份流域的水量平衡以及河道流量的季節、年際變化具有很彊的模擬能力，而對降水偏少的榦旱年份，模式模擬的河道流量通常會高于觀測實況，與實況間存在著一定的偏差，而這也是導緻CLHMS對流域水文過程模擬能力存在顯著年代際差異的主要原因。基于三組不同降水彊迫的流域水文過程模擬結果比較錶明，降水驅動資料準確與否是陸麵水文模擬最主要的不確定性來源之一，正是由于CFSR再分析降水與觀測降水之間存在較大的差異，從而導緻CFSR降水驅動下模式模擬的淮河流域河道流量與觀測存在較大的偏差，其模擬性能相對較差。進一步分析還錶明，可以保持較彊降水日變化的時間解集方法，也是保證閤理模擬流域水文過程的重要因素。
이용최신적CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）재분석급관측적강수화지표기온자료구동륙면수문우합모식CLHMS（Coupled Land surface and Hydrologic Model System），대회하류역1980～2003년공24년적수문수순배과정진행료모의，계통평고료CLHMS대회하류역수문과정적모의능력급기불학정성。분석결과표명， CLHMS 모식대회하류역수문과정구유량호적모의능력，모식우기대습윤년빈류역적수량평형이급하도류량적계절、년제변화구유흔강적모의능력，이대강수편소적간한년빈，모식모의적하도류량통상회고우관측실황，여실황간존재착일정적편차，이저야시도치CLHMS대류역수문과정모의능력존재현저년대제차이적주요원인。기우삼조불동강수강박적류역수문과정모의결과비교표명，강수구동자료준학여부시륙면수문모의최주요적불학정성래원지일，정시유우CFSR재분석강수여관측강수지간존재교대적차이，종이도치CFSR강수구동하모식모의적회하류역하도류량여관측존재교대적편차，기모의성능상대교차。진일보분석환표명，가이보지교강강수일변화적시간해집방법，야시보증합리모의류역수문과정적중요인소。
The performance of the Coupled Land surface and Hydrologic Model System (CLHMS) in simulating the hydrological processes over the Huaihe River basin is evaluated using a 24-year numerical simulation of its hydrological cycle between 1980 and 2003. The CLHMS model system is driven by CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) reanalysis data and observed precipitation and surface air temperature datasets over China. Generally, the CLHMS shows good performance in reproducing observed hydrological processes, and the model’s skill is pretty higher for wet years in simulating the water balance, and in reproducing the seasonal and interannual variation of the observed streamflow over the Huaihe River basin. For dry years with less precipitation, the model discrepancies in overestimating the observed streamflow can be found in both Wangjiaba and Benbu hydrological stations. Significant differences in the model’s performance are also found between the 1980s and the 1990s, and is largely ascribed to the differences in the model’s skill for wet and dry years. The uncertainties regarding these hydrological simulation results were further examined by three sets of numerical simulations using different precipitation forcing. It’s found that the streamflow simulation using CFSR precipitation forcing exhibited a larger bias than simulations using EAG (East Asia Grid data) precipitation forcing. These results demonstrate the importance of the precipitation forcing chosen for hydrological simulation. Further comparative analysis suggests that the temporal disaggregation method for precipitation forcing preserves the strong diurnal variation, and is therefore also important when conducting hydrological simulations over the Huaihe River basin.
