CAJ | 학술논문

通过测算全国30个省/市2002-2011年的碳排放量，并进行碳排放区域划分，将30个省/市按照碳集中度划分为重度、中度和轻度碳排放区域。利用STIRPAT 扩展模型，并采用SPSS 岭回归方法对3个碳排放区域的碳排放进行了影响因素分析。分析表明：经济增长仍是影响碳排放的主要因素；我国在低碳技术的投入和发展上还比较落后，使得整体科技进步所带来的碳排放的增加量比利用科技手段减排的CO2要多。
통과측산전국30개성/시2002-2011년적탄배방량，병진행탄배방구역화분，장30개성/시안조탄집중도화분위중도、중도화경도탄배방구역。이용STIRPAT 확전모형，병채용SPSS 령회귀방법대3개탄배방구역적탄배방진행료영향인소분석。분석표명：경제증장잉시영향탄배방적주요인소；아국재저탄기술적투입화발전상환비교락후，사득정체과기진보소대래적탄배방적증가량비이용과기수단감배적CO2요다。
This paper estimated the carbon emissions of 30 Chinese domestic provinces/cities from 2002 to 2011, and divided 30 provinces/cities into heavy carbon, medium carbon and mild carbon regions according to the carbon concentration. This paper analyses factors affecting carbon emissions of three regions using STIRPAT extension model and SPSS ridge regression method. The result shows that economic growth is the main factor affecting carbon emissions, and China’s low-carbon technology still lags behind the developed countries, resulting in more carbon emissions caused by the whole technology advance than carbon emission reductions caused by low-carbon technology advance.