CAJ | 학술논문

以皇甫川流域1954-2010年的日流量资料为基础，采用递归数字滤波法进行基流分割得到基流数据，利用小波分析对该基流进行周期和趋势性分析，最后采用CPA法对该基流进行突变分析。基流趋势分析表明，皇甫川流域年均基流量呈明显下降趋势；小波分析表明，皇甫川年均基流量在时间序列上存在着3～8 a、8～17 a、17～26 a的周期变化，且皇甫川流域年均基流量在2015年、2016年左右将处于偏少期；CPA法分析表明，皇甫川流域年均基流的突变发生在1962年、1983年、1999年，主要受气候变化和人类活动的影响，特别是1999年后，在气温上升、下垫面变化和矿产资源开发的共同作用下，皇甫川基流量进一步向减小突变。
이황보천류역1954-2010년적일류량자료위기출，채용체귀수자려파법진행기류분할득도기류수거，이용소파분석대해기류진행주기화추세성분석，최후채용CPA법대해기류진행돌변분석。기류추세분석표명，황보천류역년균기류량정명현하강추세；소파분석표명，황보천년균기류량재시간서렬상존재착3～8 a、8～17 a、17～26 a적주기변화，차황보천류역년균기류량재2015년、2016년좌우장처우편소기；CPA법분석표명，황보천류역년균기류적돌변발생재1962년、1983년、1999년，주요수기후변화화인류활동적영향，특별시1999년후，재기온상승、하점면변화화광산자원개발적공동작용하，황보천기류량진일보향감소돌변。
Based on the observed runoff series of Huangfuchuan from 1954 to 2010,this paper used the recursive digital filtering method for base flow separation. On this basis,the paper analyzed the base flow periodicity and trend analysis by the wavelet analysis and used the CPA method to do the mutation analysis of the base flow. The results show that the base flow of the Huangfuchuan presents downward trend obviously. The results of wavelet analysis show that there are 3 class dimension change rules in the process of base flow change:3~8 years,8~17 years and 17~26 years. Huangfuchuan will be dry period in 2015 or 2016. The sudden change point of base flow is mainly affected by climate change and human ac-tivities occurred in 1962、1983 and 1999. Especially after 1999,Huangfuchuan base flow changes down further with the joint action of temperature rise,underlying surface change and mineral resources development.