CAJ | 학술논문

区域地磁变化场建模与预测是地磁辅助导航、空间环境监测与预报等领域的重要研究课题。结合时域上的单台站地磁变化场预测，以及空间域上的区域地磁变化场重构，提出了一种基于克里格重构的区域地磁变化场短时预测模型。以区域范围（101°E~111°E，30°N~40°N）的地磁测站2009年的数据为实例，结果表明：1）基于克里格方法重构的区域地磁变化场 Z 分量，准确合理的反映了其时空变化特性；2）在短时预测中，区域模型能紧跟地磁变化场的变化趋势，说明其能很好地描述变化磁场的时空演化特性，且位于区域边缘的台站预测误差稍大。当预测期为1h、6h、12h、24h时，区域地磁变化场预测模型的平均绝对误差分别为1.67 nT、2.19 nT、2.72 nT、3.14 nT。
구역지자변화장건모여예측시지자보조도항、공간배경감측여예보등영역적중요연구과제。결합시역상적단태참지자변화장예측，이급공간역상적구역지자변화장중구，제출료일충기우극리격중구적구역지자변화장단시예측모형。이구역범위（101°E~111°E，30°N~40°N）적지자측참2009년적수거위실례，결과표명：1）기우극리격방법중구적구역지자변화장 Z 분량，준학합리적반영료기시공변화특성；2）재단시예측중，구역모형능긴근지자변화장적변화추세，설명기능흔호지묘술변화자장적시공연화특성，차위우구역변연적태참예측오차초대。당예측기위1h、6h、12h、24h시，구역지자변화장예측모형적평균절대오차분별위1.67 nT、2.19 nT、2.72 nT、3.14 nT。
The modeling and forecasting of regional geomagnetic variation field is an important research topic of geomagnetic navigation and space environment monitoring. Combining the time-domain forecasting of the single geomagnetic observatory and the space-domain reconstruction of the regional geomagnetic variation field, this paper proposes a regional geomagnetic forecasting model based on Kriging reconstruction method. It shows that: 1) the regional geomagnetic Z component reconstructed by Kriging method can reasonably and accurately reflect its spatial-temporal variation characteristics; 2) the regional model can closely keep up with the trend of geomagnetic variation field in short-term forecasting, which indicates that the model can accurately describe the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics. The forecasting errors of geomagnetic observatory located in the area edge are larger. When the forecasting period is 1 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, the mean absolute error of the regional model is 1.67 nT, 2.19 nT, 2.72 nT and 3.14 nT, respectively.