CAJ | 학술논문

深水防喷器系统是深水井控的核心设备，它的失效是导致 Macondo 深水井漏油事故的重要原因之一。为了识别 Macondo 井防喷器系统的主要失效原因，采用故障树分析法结合其防喷器失效过程进行分析，建立了具有14个基本事件的系统失效故障树。通过求解故障树的最小割集和径集，分别找出了系统失效的10种模式，对基本事件进行结构重要度计算，结果表明，剪切面有钻杆接头、内 BOP 阀门未关闭、水下蓄能器漏失等是导致系统失效的主要原因。对 Macondo 井防喷器系统失效概率的近似计算与实际情况相符，验证了失效原因分析的正确性。该研究有助于对 Macondo 深水井漏油事故的进一步分析，对深水防喷器的设计和选用也具有一定的理论指导作用和参考价值。
심수방분기계통시심수정공적핵심설비，타적실효시도치 Macondo 심수정루유사고적중요원인지일。위료식별 Macondo 정방분기계통적주요실효원인，채용고장수분석법결합기방분기실효과정진행분석，건립료구유14개기본사건적계통실효고장수。통과구해고장수적최소할집화경집，분별조출료계통실효적10충모식，대기본사건진행결구중요도계산，결과표명，전절면유찬간접두、내 BOP 벌문미관폐、수하축능기루실등시도치계통실효적주요원인。대 Macondo 정방분기계통실효개솔적근사계산여실제정황상부，험증료실효원인분석적정학성。해연구유조우대 Macondo 심수정루유사고적진일보분석，대심수방분기적설계화선용야구유일정적이론지도작용화삼고개치。
Deepwater BOP system is the core equipment for deepwater well control .It was the failure of such system that led to the oil spill of Macondo well .To understand why such failure occurred ,the fault tree analysis was made ,and together with the analysis of failure process ,a fault tree for system failure with 14 events was built .By solving the minimal cut sets and path sets ,10 failure modes are identified to calcu-late the structural importance for basic events ,it was found that the BOP system failure in Macondo acci-dent was mainly attributed to shear plane on pipe joints ,inside BOP valve not closed ,and leakage of under-water hydraulic accumulator .The probability value of the BOP system failure is consistent with the real case of accident ,which demonstrates the validity of the failure analysis .The research is favorable to further investigate the Macondo oil spill ,and also provides a theoretical reference for design and application of deepwater BOP .