CAJ | 학술논문

概率统计法是目前圈闭资源量计算的最有效方法，其计算结果的大小、精度与合理性受各资源量参数的概率分布所决定。因此，如何构建适合不同地区、不同领域圈闭的资源量参数概率分布，并通过合理的有效性检验以证明其可靠性，是概率统计法应用的关键。基于勘探风险分析思想，建立了圈闭资源量参数概率分布构建及检验流程，并给出了相应的资源量参数不确定性分析方法。其中，有针对性地提出将数学假设检验方法应用于圈闭资源量参数模型的有效性检验之中，并根据资源量参数的地学和数学特征，建立了相应数学假设检验流程。最后，以我国东部某预探圈闭为实例，阐述了上述流程和方法的应用过程。实例结果表明，利用上述方法可以有效地实现资源量参数概率分布的定量化分析，其资源量计算结果与该圈闭钻后预测储量规模基本吻合，验证了上述方法的可靠性与合理性。
개솔통계법시목전권폐자원량계산적최유효방법，기계산결과적대소、정도여합이성수각자원량삼수적개솔분포소결정。인차，여하구건괄합불동지구、불동영역권폐적자원량삼수개솔분포，병통과합리적유효성검험이증명기가고성，시개솔통계법응용적관건。기우감탐풍험분석사상，건립료권폐자원량삼수개솔분포구건급검험류정，병급출료상응적자원량삼수불학정성분석방법。기중，유침대성지제출장수학가설검험방법응용우권폐자원량삼수모형적유효성검험지중，병근거자원량삼수적지학화수학특정，건립료상응수학가설검험류정。최후，이아국동부모예탐권폐위실례，천술료상술류정화방법적응용과정。실례결과표명，이용상술방법가이유효지실현자원량삼수개솔분포적정양화분석，기자원량계산결과여해권폐찬후예측저량규모기본문합，험증료상술방법적가고성여합이성。
Probabilistic statistics method is the most effective way to estimate trapped petroleum resources .However,the precision and rationality of the estimates depend on the probability distributions of parameters used for resources calcula -tion.Therefore,establishing the probability distributions of the resources parameters suitable for traps of different types in different areas and making the rational validation check to prove their reliability have become the key points of the appli -cation of the probabilistic method .Based on risk analysis of exploration ,this paper presented a workflow to establish and check probability distribution of the trap resources parameters ,and an analytical method for determining the uncertainty of corresponding parameters .Meanwhile ,the mathematical hypothesis check method was used to be applied into the valida-tion check of the trap resources parameter models .According to the geologic and mathematic characteristics of the re-sources parameters ,a corresponding mathematical hypothesis test workflow was also established .Finally,a pre-exploration trap in the east of China was taken as an example for illustrating the workflow and the application process of the method . The results show that the method can effectively realize quantitative analysis of the resources parameters .And the calcula-tion results match well with the post-drilling predicted reserves ,validating the reliability and the rationality of this method .