CAJ | 학술논문

预探目标是指部署油气预探井的一个圈闭或者是纵向上叠置的多个圈闭。不同地区、不同领域的预探目标评价优选决策是优化勘探投资、实现高效勘探关键所在。通常勘探家主要从预探目标的含油气性、资源规模、钻探工程工艺技术适应性和资源带动战略意义等因素决定预探目标。如何量化表征上述关键要素，实现不同地区、不同领域的预探目标统一评价优选决策是油气勘探面临技术难点。文中建立了基于风险分析技术的“风险分析-资源价值”模型和指标体系，实现了预探目标的统一评价优选决策。对优选上的预探目标用其风险后价值指标由大到小排序。预探目标的钻探决策是根据油公司投资规模限定的钻探目标数目求出风险后价值门槛值，并在“风险分析-资源价值”模型上优选位于风险后价值门槛值弧线右上方的目标优先钻探。
예탐목표시지부서유기예탐정적일개권폐혹자시종향상첩치적다개권폐。불동지구、불동영역적예탐목표평개우선결책시우화감탐투자、실현고효감탐관건소재。통상감탐가주요종예탐목표적함유기성、자원규모、찬탐공정공예기술괄응성화자원대동전략의의등인소결정예탐목표。여하양화표정상술관건요소，실현불동지구、불동영역적예탐목표통일평개우선결책시유기감탐면림기술난점。문중건립료기우풍험분석기술적“풍험분석-자원개치”모형화지표체계，실현료예탐목표적통일평개우선결책。대우선상적예탐목표용기풍험후개치지표유대도소배서。예탐목표적찬탐결책시근거유공사투자규모한정적찬탐목표수목구출풍험후개치문함치，병재“풍험분석-자원개치”모형상우선위우풍험후개치문함치호선우상방적목표우선찬탐。
Preliminary exploration prospect evaluation and screening in different areas and different exploration domain is the key to optimize exploration investment and to realize efficient exploration .Explorationists commonly select preliminary exploration targets according to such factors as petroleum-bearing property,petroleum resources,and technical and tech-nological applicability of drilling engineering .Quantitative description of these factors and establishment of a set of unified evaluation and screening criteria are the technical challenges facing oil and gas exploration .Risk analysis-based ‘Risk Analysis-Resource Value ’ model and relevant index system are established in this paper for unified evaluation and screening of preliminary exploration targets .The preferred preliminary exploration targets are ranked by the risked net va-lue.The preferred drilling targets in the ‘Risk Analysis-Resource Value ’ model are located at the upper right of the threshold curve of risked net value which is plotted according to the number of drilling wells limited by investment .