CAJ | 학술논문

基于Tapio模型，利用1994-2010年中国工业行业面板数据，实证研究了工业经济增长与碳排放的脱钩关系，并运用LMDI方法对影响碳排放强度变化的主要因素进行了分解。研究发现，2000年之后中国工业经济增长与碳排放趋于稳定的弱脱钩状态，波动性很小；能耗脱钩因子对工业碳排放脱钩表现出持续的正效应，对脱钩的影响力要远大于排放脱钩因子；能源强度下降是推动中国工业碳减排的关键，能源结构红利和工业结构红利尚未出现。在此基础上，对中国工业碳排放脱钩历程及其影响因素的不同效应进行了经济解释，并提出发展低碳经济的相关建议。
기우Tapio모형，이용1994-2010년중국공업행업면판수거，실증연구료공업경제증장여탄배방적탈구관계，병운용LMDI방법대영향탄배방강도변화적주요인소진행료분해。연구발현，2000년지후중국공업경제증장여탄배방추우은정적약탈구상태，파동성흔소；능모탈구인자대공업탄배방탈구표현출지속적정효응，대탈구적영향력요원대우배방탈구인자；능원강도하강시추동중국공업탄감배적관건，능원결구홍리화공업결구홍리상미출현。재차기출상，대중국공업탄배방탈구역정급기영향인소적불동효응진행료경제해석，병제출발전저탄경제적상관건의。
Based on energy consumption and economic growth data of Chinese industries in 1994-2010, this paper puts forward a theoretical model to analyze decoupling relationship between carbon emission and industrial economic growth, and adopts LMDI method to decompose the driving factors of carbon emission. The authors find that the decoupling relationship between carbon emission and industrial economic growth is in a stably weak decoupling condition after 2000. In the two decoupling factors, the energy-consumption decoupling factor has a positive influence on the decoupling between carbon emission and industrial economic growth. Compared to the energy-consumption decoupling factor, the influence of emission decoupling factor is very weak. This paper also finds that the decrease of energy consumption intensity is mainly due to carbon emission-abate as a whole, while the structural bonus has not yet appeared in China. According to the results, the authors suggest a reasonable economic explanation and presents relevant policy to develop Chinese low-carbon economy.