草业学报
草業學報
초업학보
PRATACULTURAL SCIENCE
2014年
4期
20-30
,共11页
王罛%林慧龙%何兰%曹坳程
王罛%林慧龍%何蘭%曹坳程
왕고%림혜룡%하란%조요정
物种入侵%紫茎泽兰%生态位模型%生态位因子分析(ENFA)%最大熵模型(MaxEnt)
物種入侵%紫莖澤蘭%生態位模型%生態位因子分析(ENFA)%最大熵模型(MaxEnt)
물충입침%자경택란%생태위모형%생태위인자분석(ENFA)%최대적모형(MaxEnt)
invasive species%Eupatorium adenophorum%niche model%ecological niche factor analysis (EN-FA)%maximum entropy model (MaxEnt)
紫茎泽兰的生态适应性强,是我国外来入侵物种中危害最为严重的恶性杂草。研究紫茎泽兰的适生性特征及对全球气候变化的响应规律是制定防控策略的重要基础,为此,本研究采用了将生态位因子分析(ENFA)与最大熵模型(MaxEnt)嵌套的方法,首先通过ENFA对环境因子进行降维,利用降维后的环境因子以及当前及A1 b情景的未来气候数据,根据最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测紫茎泽兰的潜在分布,并使用 ROC 曲线分析对预测结果进行评价。结果显示,当前气候情景下,紫茎泽兰的分布区以云南、贵州、广西等省为主;未来A1 b情景下,易入侵等级(入侵概率为0.6~1.0)的区域面积将会由当前的12.82 km2增加至2080s的21.30 km2,中心点将由当前位置向西南方向移动61 km;而其中高入侵概率等级(入侵概率为0.8~1.0)的区域面积将由当前的0.42 km2增加至2080s的0.91 km2,中心点将由当前位置向东南方向移动178.66 km。根据当前及未来A1b 气候情景下紫茎泽兰潜在分布情况,并根据不同入侵等级区域采取相应的防除治理措施,将对紫茎泽兰的综合治理具有重要指导意义。
紫莖澤蘭的生態適應性彊,是我國外來入侵物種中危害最為嚴重的噁性雜草。研究紫莖澤蘭的適生性特徵及對全毬氣候變化的響應規律是製定防控策略的重要基礎,為此,本研究採用瞭將生態位因子分析(ENFA)與最大熵模型(MaxEnt)嵌套的方法,首先通過ENFA對環境因子進行降維,利用降維後的環境因子以及噹前及A1 b情景的未來氣候數據,根據最大熵模型(MaxEnt)預測紫莖澤蘭的潛在分佈,併使用 ROC 麯線分析對預測結果進行評價。結果顯示,噹前氣候情景下,紫莖澤蘭的分佈區以雲南、貴州、廣西等省為主;未來A1 b情景下,易入侵等級(入侵概率為0.6~1.0)的區域麵積將會由噹前的12.82 km2增加至2080s的21.30 km2,中心點將由噹前位置嚮西南方嚮移動61 km;而其中高入侵概率等級(入侵概率為0.8~1.0)的區域麵積將由噹前的0.42 km2增加至2080s的0.91 km2,中心點將由噹前位置嚮東南方嚮移動178.66 km。根據噹前及未來A1b 氣候情景下紫莖澤蘭潛在分佈情況,併根據不同入侵等級區域採取相應的防除治理措施,將對紫莖澤蘭的綜閤治理具有重要指導意義。
자경택란적생태괄응성강,시아국외래입침물충중위해최위엄중적악성잡초。연구자경택란적괄생성특정급대전구기후변화적향응규률시제정방공책략적중요기출,위차,본연구채용료장생태위인자분석(ENFA)여최대적모형(MaxEnt)감투적방법,수선통과ENFA대배경인자진행강유,이용강유후적배경인자이급당전급A1 b정경적미래기후수거,근거최대적모형(MaxEnt)예측자경택란적잠재분포,병사용 ROC 곡선분석대예측결과진행평개。결과현시,당전기후정경하,자경택란적분포구이운남、귀주、엄서등성위주;미래A1 b정경하,역입침등급(입침개솔위0.6~1.0)적구역면적장회유당전적12.82 km2증가지2080s적21.30 km2,중심점장유당전위치향서남방향이동61 km;이기중고입침개솔등급(입침개솔위0.8~1.0)적구역면적장유당전적0.42 km2증가지2080s적0.91 km2,중심점장유당전위치향동남방향이동178.66 km。근거당전급미래A1b 기후정경하자경택란잠재분포정황,병근거불동입침등급구역채취상응적방제치리조시,장대자경택란적종합치리구유중요지도의의。
Eupatoriumadenophorum is one of the most invasive alien species in China.It has a strong ecological adaptability,and it can seize the niche very quickly thus the native species would be posed a threat to biodiversi-ty by being crowded out.In order to study the potential distribution of E. adenophorum and its response to cli-mate change,also to find out the environmental factors which influence the distribution of E. adenophorum, the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA)and the maximum entropy model were combined in this study. Firstly the environmental factors dimension was reduced by ENFA;secondly together with current and future climate data the study use MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of E. adenophorum in the future.The re-sults showed that in the A1b scenario,the main distribution areas were Yunnan,Guizhou,and Guangxi prov-ince.From now to 2080s,the area of L45 grade (the invasion probability is 0.6-1.0)was increased from 12.82 km2 of nowadays to 21.30 km2 in 2080s,and the center moved 46.62 km northwest.While the area of L5 grade (the invasion probability is 0.8-1.0)was increased from 0.42 km2 of nowadays to 0.91 km2 in 2080s,and the center moved 178.66 km northeast.According to the research of the potential distribution of E. adenophorum in the current and future,the area of different invasion grade could be controlled by appropriate measures,and it will provide an important guidance for the comprehensive management.