CAJ | 학술논문

目的：检测口腔颌面外科医师对其手术所耗时间进行预测和评估的准确性。方法由三名资深口腔颌面外科医师对其所实施各类口腔颌面外科手术（100例）所耗时间进行预测，并将预测值与实际耗时进行比较，复查手术记录，总结分析原因。结果在100例手术中，预测准确的占32％，预测超时的占38％，预测不足的为30％。在预测超时的38例中，10例为颌骨骨折切开复位内固定术和唇腭裂手术及腮腺良性肿瘤切除术，8例为正颌外科手术。30例预测不足的手术中，7例为正颌外科手术，8例为骨折开放复位术。32例预测准确的病例中，7例为多牙拔除或阻生第三磨牙拔除术，5例为关节镜下颞下颌关节松解和灌注术。结论对于口腔外科手术耗时的预测和评估准确性不高，口腔颌面外科医师应对干扰预测的各项混杂因素进行分析以提高其预测准确性。
목적：검측구강합면외과의사대기수술소모시간진행예측화평고적준학성。방법유삼명자심구강합면외과의사대기소실시각류구강합면외과수술（100례）소모시간진행예측，병장예측치여실제모시진행비교，복사수술기록，총결분석원인。결과재100례수술중，예측준학적점32％，예측초시적점38％，예측불족적위30％。재예측초시적38례중，10례위합골골절절개복위내고정술화진악렬수술급시선량성종류절제술，8례위정합외과수술。30례예측불족적수술중，7례위정합외과수술，8례위골절개방복위술。32례예측준학적병례중，7례위다아발제혹조생제삼마아발제술，5례위관절경하섭하합관절송해화관주술。결론대우구강외과수술모시적예측화평고준학성불고，구강합면외과의사응대간우예측적각항혼잡인소진행분석이제고기예측준학성。
Objective To investigate the accuracy of time estimation in an operation performed by oral and maxillofacial sur -geons (OMSs).Methods Three experienced OMSs predicted their operating times in various operations ,and then these predictions were compared with the actual times .The operative reports were reviewed to summarize possible reasons .Results In the 100 cases an-alyzed,the correct times were 32%,overestimated times were 38%and underestimated times were 30%.In the 38 overestimated cases , 10 cases were involved in multiple tooth extractions or removal of impacted third molars ,and 8 cases were involved in orthognathic sur-gery.In the 30 underestimated cases ,7 were involved in orthognathic surgery and 8 were involved in the open reduction of fractures .The 32 accurate estimated cases included 7 cases of multiple tooth extractions or impacted third molar removal and 5 cases of arthroscopic temporomandibular joint lysis and lavage .Conclusion Although operating times need to be used for scheduling purposes ,they can be highly unpredictable .Surgeons need to constantly analyze their predictions for confounding factors in order to improve the accuracy .