CAJ | 학술논문

研究黄淮海地区不同灌溉水平下冬小麦产量的变化规律，对于识别干旱对冬小麦产量的影响和制定合理的节水灌溉措施具有指导意义。基于DSSAT作物模型，参考各生育阶段的水分亏缺量以及当地的灌溉习惯，制定模型输入的不同处理的灌溉量，模拟分析近30年黄淮海灌溉冬麦区4个典型站点冬小麦关键生育期不同灌溉水平下，产量及产量构成的相对变化规律，并且以典型处理为例，探讨2个关键生育阶段减产的累积概率。结果表明，拔节至抽穗期的水分胁迫对冬小麦的产量影响最大，产量相对变化主要由水分胁迫引起单位面积粒数的相对变化引起。在重度干旱条件下，拔节至抽穗期胁迫造成中等程度减产概率约为灌浆期胁迫的2倍(山东兖州点除外)；在河北石家庄和天津点，轻度和重度减产主要由拔节至抽穗期胁迫引起，而在山东兖州和河南新乡点，拔节至抽穗期及灌浆期胁迫造成轻度减产概率差别不大，但灌浆期重度干旱导致一定概率的重度减产。因此，在黄淮海冬小麦灌区偏南部，不但要加强拔节至抽穗期的灌溉措施，还应该注重灌浆期的干旱风险。
연구황회해지구불동관개수평하동소맥산량적변화규률，대우식별간한대동소맥산량적영향화제정합리적절수관개조시구유지도의의。기우DSSAT작물모형，삼고각생육계단적수분우결량이급당지적관개습관，제정모형수입적불동처리적관개량，모의분석근30년황회해관개동맥구4개전형참점동소맥관건생육기불동관개수평하，산량급산량구성적상대변화규률，병차이전형처리위례，탐토2개관건생육계단감산적루적개솔。결과표명，발절지추수기적수분협박대동소맥적산량영향최대，산량상대변화주요유수분협박인기단위면적립수적상대변화인기。재중도간한조건하，발절지추수기협박조성중등정도감산개솔약위관장기협박적2배(산동연주점제외)；재하북석가장화천진점，경도화중도감산주요유발절지추수기협박인기，이재산동연주화하남신향점，발절지추수기급관장기협박조성경도감산개솔차별불대，단관장기중도간한도치일정개솔적중도감산。인차，재황회해동소맥관구편남부，불단요가강발절지추수기적관개조시，환응해주중관장기적간한풍험。
Water deficiency is recognized as a major problem in winter wheat production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. This study aimed to assess the impact of drought stress on winter wheat yield and raise irrigation proposals for water-saving production in this area. With reference to the fact of water deficits in major growth stages of wheat and the local irrigation practice, we input different irrigation levels (volumes) required by the DSSAT crop model to simulate yield variations in response to irrigation levels at critical growing stages in four typical sites during the past three decades. The cumulative probability for yield reduction was concluded based on irrigation at jointing-heading and filling stages. The greatest yield reduction was found under joint-ing-heading drought stress, and the relative change rate in yield was two folds to that under drought stress at filling stage. This relative yield change was primarily attributed to the relative change in grain number per square meter caused by water deficiency during jointing-heading stage. Under high-strength drought stress, medium yield reduction dominantly resulted from water defi-ciency during jointing-heading, with a two-fold probability to that under drought stress at filling stage (except for Yanzhou site);whereas, slight and severe yield reductions at Shijiazhuang and Tianjin sites resulted from early (jointing-heading) drought stress and those at Yanzhou and Xinxiang sites were attributed to either early (jointing-heading) or late (filling stage) drought stress. At Yanzhou and Xinxiang sites, the probabilities of slight yield reduction were similar under early and later drought stressed;how-ever, water deficiency at filling stage resulted in severe yield reduction. These results indicate that irrigation is important not only from jointing to heading but also at filling stage of winter wheat in the southern area of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.