CAJ | 학술논문

文章借助淮南矿区1985、1995、2000、2005、2010年共5期遥感影像和地形图，在Google Earth高分辨率影像辅助之下，通过人机交互解译方法，获取矿区土地利用/覆盖变化基础数据，由此计算各年份土地利用/覆盖类型的动态度和转移矩阵，分析矿区土地利用/覆盖类型结构和变化情况，并利用马尔科夫预测模型对矿区未来20 a的土地利用/覆盖变化进行预测。研究表明：耕地是矿区主要土地利用类型，并逐年减少，城镇用地、塌陷区增长最为明显，水域、工矿用地表现为增长的趋势；1985-2010年间，塌陷区的动态度为11.07，变化速度最快，其次为城镇用地，在各个分时段内，塌陷区的动态度相对都比较高，而2005-2010时段内，城镇用地的动态度达到了9.12；城镇用地、塌陷区、水域、工矿用地和园林地的增加主要依靠耕地的转化；到2030年时，耕地减少到3012.47 km2，城镇用地、塌陷区、园林地和工矿用地依然增长，水域相对减少。
문장차조회남광구1985、1995、2000、2005、2010년공5기요감영상화지형도，재Google Earth고분변솔영상보조지하，통과인궤교호해역방법，획취광구토지이용/복개변화기출수거，유차계산각년빈토지이용/복개류형적동태도화전이구진，분석광구토지이용/복개류형결구화변화정황，병이용마이과부예측모형대광구미래20 a적토지이용/복개변화진행예측。연구표명：경지시광구주요토지이용류형，병축년감소，성진용지、탑함구증장최위명현，수역、공광용지표현위증장적추세；1985-2010년간，탑함구적동태도위11.07，변화속도최쾌，기차위성진용지，재각개분시단내，탑함구적동태도상대도비교고，이2005-2010시단내，성진용지적동태도체도료9.12；성진용지、탑함구、수역、공광용지화완임지적증가주요의고경지적전화；도2030년시，경지감소도3012.47 km2，성진용지、탑함구、완임지화공광용지의연증장，수역상대감소。
Based on the remote sensing (RS) images and topographic map of Huainan mining area in five periods of 1985 ,1995 ,2000 ,2005 and 2010 ,and with the assistance of Google Earth ,the basic data about land use/cover change of Huainan mining area were obtained by the method of man-machine interactive interpretation . According to these data ,the dynamic degree and transfer matrix of land use/cover change were calculated to analyze the land use/cover structure and its change in the mining area ,and then the land use/cover change in the future 20 years was predicted by using the Markov forecast model .The results show that cropland is the major type of land use in the mining area ,which reduces year by year .The urban land and subsidence area grow most obviously ,and the water area and industrial land have the growth trend too .From 1985 to 2010 , the dynamic degree of subsidence area is 11.07 ,which changes the fastest ,followed by urban land .In each period of time ,the dynamic degrees of subsidence area are all relatively high ,but in the 2005-2010 period ,the dynamic degree of urban land is 9.12 .The increases in the water area ,urban land ,subsidence area ,industrial land and garden land mainly result from the transformation of cropland .By 2030s ,the cropland will reduce to 3 012.47 km2 ,the urban land ,subsidence area ,garden land and industrial land will constantly increase ,but the water area will be on the other side .