CAJ | 학술논문

收集广东省环保局发布的2003-2012年水库蓄水量、水质指数和供河源市的饮用水供水量，并根据逐月数据计算了逐年、月均和干湿季3指标。结果表明，新丰江水库供河源市的饮用水逐月供水量总体呈波动上升趋势，2012年年供水量是2003年的3.3倍之多；各月水质均无任何超标项目，多年平均1月水质最差，年均水质指数总的趋势是下降，水质有所好转。与干季相比，湿季水质更优，供水量更多。统计分析显示，干湿季间供水量差异极显著，水质指数差异显著，而水库蓄水量差异不显著。逐月供水量与水库蓄水量呈极显著正线性关系，与水质指数呈极显著负线性关系。而干湿季和年供水量分别与水库水质指数间的负线性关系均达到显著水平，与同期水库蓄水多寡没有显著关系。总体上近10年来新丰江水库的供水需求和供水能力在不断增加，而水库蓄水量却比较紧缺（10 a 间58%的月份水库蓄水量处于紧缺或比较紧缺状态）；虽然水质很好，但流域内存在多个污染隐患（如养殖、采矿、生活污水、林业结构不合理等）。因此水库供需矛盾比较突出，供水安全存在水量和水质的双重隐患。水库供水调度中需要充分考虑供水需求规律，并采取有效措施监控流域污染，才能切实保障水库供水安全。
수집광동성배보국발포적2003-2012년수고축수량、수질지수화공하원시적음용수공수량，병근거축월수거계산료축년、월균화간습계3지표。결과표명，신봉강수고공하원시적음용수축월공수량총체정파동상승추세，2012년년공수량시2003년적3.3배지다；각월수질균무임하초표항목，다년평균1월수질최차，년균수질지수총적추세시하강，수질유소호전。여간계상비，습계수질경우，공수량경다。통계분석현시，간습계간공수량차이겁현저，수질지수차이현저，이수고축수량차이불현저。축월공수량여수고축수량정겁현저정선성관계，여수질지수정겁현저부선성관계。이간습계화년공수량분별여수고수질지수간적부선성관계균체도현저수평，여동기수고축수다과몰유현저관계。총체상근10년래신봉강수고적공수수구화공수능력재불단증가，이수고축수량각비교긴결（10 a 간58%적월빈수고축수량처우긴결혹비교긴결상태）；수연수질흔호，단류역내존재다개오염은환（여양식、채광、생활오수、임업결구불합리등）。인차수고공수모순비교돌출，공수안전존재수량화수질적쌍중은환。수고공수조도중수요충분고필공수수구규률，병채취유효조시감공류역오염，재능절실보장수고공수안전。
Reservoir has been one of the main water supply sources in the world. Xinfengjiang reservoir supplies drinking water not only for Heyuan city directly, but also for downstream cities Huizhou and Dongguan through the Dongjiang river, as well as for other cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hong Kong through interbasin water transfer. Therfore, Xinfengjiang reservoir is one of the most important water sources in Guangdong province, and research on its water supply ability and safety is very significant. By using month by month data of reservoir water quantity (RWQ), water quality index (WQI) and water supply for drinking to Heyuan city (WSFD) during 2003-2012, the article calculated the yearly and monthly average values of the three indexes and those in dry and wet seasons. The result showed that WSFD was increasing with fluctuations generally. The value of WSFD in 2012 was 3.3 times of that in 2003. No pollutant exceeded standard and the worst water quality was in Janurary on average for many years and annual average of WQI was generally declining during the ten years and water quality improved. Water quality and WSFD in wet season (from April to September) were better /more than those in dry season. The WSFD difference between dry and wet seasons was very significant by statistical analysis, the WQI difference between the two seasons was also significant, but the RWQ difference between dry and wet seasons was not significant. The WSFD month by month had obviously positive linear correlation with RWQ, and negative linear correlation with WQI. The correlationship between WSFD and WQI had significant negative linear characteristics during dry season, wet season and the year, while that between WSFD and RWQ was not significant. In last ten years, both the demand for drinking water and the water supply were increasing, however, the reservoir water quantity was frequently deficient (the months when RWQ was insufficient accounted for 58 percent of the total in the ten years). Although water quality was fine, some potential problems occurred in the reservoir watershed, for example, livestock farming, mining, domestic sewage drainage, unreasonable forestry structure, etc.. Thus the imbalance between supply and demand was becoming increasingly serious. Water supply safety of the reservoir was facing two hidden dangers from the reduction of water quantity and quality. For the sake of long term water supply security, effective measures should be adopted to readjust hydraulic scheduling according to the character of water supply and to monitor and controll water pollution.