CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规气象地面观测资料、探空资料，中小尺度自动站监测网、雷达遥感等非常规观测资料，对于2013-07-14发生的广西金秀县漂流灾害事件的气象特征进行分析，结果表明：广西金秀县天堂谷漂流灾难是由一个小尺度的脉冲对流单体风暴在发展强盛过程中，产生的短时强降水所引发，脉冲对流单体风暴在雷达速度剖面图上具有低层经向辐合和高层辐散出流的特征，回波高度超过10 km，但上升气流未出现倾斜，强回波中心主要位于3~6 km 的暖层云中，是典型的强降水风暴类型特征；脉冲对流单体风暴处在台风槽尾部的高温高湿大气环境条件下，边界层强辐合线是对流单体风暴生成和发展的主要动力强迫机制；雷达反演的降水量能够较精确地反映无雨量监测站流域的雨强，反演的平均面雨量超过30 mm/h，为禁止漂流的危险等级。雷达估测产品的应用能为山洪、泥石流和滑坡灾害多发区的监测预警提供可行的方法。
이용상규기상지면관측자료、탐공자료，중소척도자동참감측망、뢰체요감등비상규관측자료，대우2013-07-14발생적엄서금수현표류재해사건적기상특정진행분석，결과표명：엄서금수현천당곡표류재난시유일개소척도적맥충대류단체풍폭재발전강성과정중，산생적단시강강수소인발，맥충대류단체풍폭재뢰체속도부면도상구유저층경향복합화고층복산출류적특정，회파고도초과10 km，단상승기류미출현경사，강회파중심주요위우3~6 km 적난층운중，시전형적강강수풍폭류형특정；맥충대류단체풍폭처재태풍조미부적고온고습대기배경조건하，변계층강복합선시대류단체풍폭생성화발전적주요동력강박궤제；뢰체반연적강수량능구교정학지반영무우량감측참류역적우강，반연적평균면우량초과30 mm/h，위금지표류적위험등급。뢰체고측산품적응용능위산홍、니석류화활파재해다발구적감측예경제공가행적방법。
As the rafting tourism in mountain streams is developing extensively at home, the torrential flood caused by the very short time heavy rainfall becomes the most potential “killer”to the safety of the rafting tourism under complicated terrain. Because of lacking rain gauge data, the purpose of this paper was to use dynamic relationship between the factor of base reflectivity and the intensity of rain(Z-I) with the technique of Doppler radar to estimate quantitatively the precipitation causing the rafting accident in Jinxiu on July 14, 2013. The meteorological factors also were researched based on the conventional and non-conventional meteorological data including surface and sounding data, and the micro-mesoscale observations and radar data. The results showed that the flash heavy rain which was caused by an intensely developed microscale storm was the primary reason of the disaster. The features for heavy rain were obvious in the radar images. It converged at low and middle level, diverged at high level in the storm. The non-slope updraft extended up to 10 km. The intense echo mainly came from the warm cloud which was 3-6 km high. The convergence line in the boundary in the warm and moist typhoon-trough was the dynamic uplift mechanism. The quantitatively precipitation estimate (QPE) based on radar data could represent the precipitation in the valley approximatively, where there ware no observations. The average area rainfall was more than 30 mm/h, reached the dangerous level for rafting. Radar-QPE is a new effective method to monitor the geological disasters for early warning issue.