CAJ | 학술논문

渗透系数场的空间变异性是影响污染物运移结果的决定因素，而地质统计方法是解决渗透系数空间变异性的主要技术手段。本文利用野外场地实测数据，采用普通克里格法和指示克里格法、顺序高斯模拟法和顺序指示模拟法四种地质统计方法，插值估测和模拟再现随机渗透系数场，进而对比研究四种渗透系数场对大尺度污染物运移的影响。研究结果表明，污染羽的质心位置(一阶矩)主要由渗透系数的平均值来决定；污染羽在空间上的展布范围(二阶矩)主要受渗透系数空间变异方差的影响；条件模拟克服了估计法的平滑效果，较好地再现真实曲线的波动性，渗透系数( lnK)估计方差与污染羽空间二阶矩随着条件模拟次数的增加而减小，并且顺序指示模拟程度更加明显。
삼투계수장적공간변이성시영향오염물운이결과적결정인소，이지질통계방법시해결삼투계수공간변이성적주요기술수단。본문이용야외장지실측수거，채용보통극리격법화지시극리격법、순서고사모의법화순서지시모의법사충지질통계방법，삽치고측화모의재현수궤삼투계수장，진이대비연구사충삼투계수장대대척도오염물운이적영향。연구결과표명，오염우적질심위치(일계구)주요유삼투계수적평균치래결정；오염우재공간상적전포범위(이계구)주요수삼투계수공간변이방차적영향；조건모의극복료고계법적평활효과，교호지재현진실곡선적파동성，삼투계수( lnK)고계방차여오염우공간이계구수착조건모의차수적증가이감소，병차순서지시모의정도경가명현。
The spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity distribution is the determining factor of groundwater contaminant transport and geostatistics is the main technique to slove the problem. Processing field data of an aquifer with four geostatistical techniques, including ordinary kriging method, indicator kriging method, sequential Gaussian simulation and sequence indica-tor simulation, hydraulic conductivity distribution of a pointed aquifer is mapped respectively to compare the influence of four simulation techniques on groundwater contaminant movement. Results indicate that the centroid of contaminant plume ( first movement) is positioned according to the average of hydraulic conductivity; the distribution range of contaminant plume ( sec-ond movement) is mainly affected by the variance of spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity. Condition simulation irons flaws raised by smoothing effect of estimation and reproduces the volatility of curve draw by real statistics. With repeated condi-tion simulations, estimated variance of lnK and the second movement of contaminant plum decrease and sequence indication simulation is more accurate.