CAJ | 학술논문

根据晋冀蒙交界近33年的区域台网地震资料，运用最大似然法，分别计算并绘制晋冀蒙交界1980年、1990年、2000年以来 b 值空间扫描图像，结果显示，低 b 值异常区主要分布在大同、张北、代县一带。依据区域地质构造条件、b 值空间分布图像、历史强震和现代地震活动特征，将晋冀蒙交界分成张北段、延庆段、大同段和代县段4个段落，采用最佳效果拟合法＋最大似然法，对各段落进行 b 值时间扫描，并且利用断裂带分段的多地震活动参数值组合分析方法，分析4个段落的现今活动习性，综合判定处于相对高应力和闭锁状态的断裂段。研究结果表明，张北段处于高应力背景下的相对闭锁状态，但会受到1998年、1999年张北 M 6．2、M 5．6强余震影响。综合分析认为，需注意张北段和延庆段发生中强地震的长期地震危险。
근거진기몽교계근33년적구역태망지진자료，운용최대사연법，분별계산병회제진기몽교계1980년、1990년、2000년이래 b 치공간소묘도상，결과현시，저 b 치이상구주요분포재대동、장북、대현일대。의거구역지질구조조건、b 치공간분포도상、역사강진화현대지진활동특정，장진기몽교계분성장북단、연경단、대동단화대현단4개단락，채용최가효과의합법＋최대사연법，대각단락진행 b 치시간소묘，병차이용단렬대분단적다지진활동삼수치조합분석방법，분석4개단락적현금활동습성，종합판정처우상대고응력화폐쇄상태적단렬단。연구결과표명，장북단처우고응력배경하적상대폐쇄상태，단회수도1998년、1999년장북 M 6．2、M 5．6강여진영향。종합분석인위，수주의장북단화연경단발생중강지진적장기지진위험。
Based onthe seismic catalog from regional seismic network in the last 33 years,we respec-tively calculated and drew b value spatial scanning image since 1980、1990 and 2000 using maximum likelihood method.The results show that low b value abnormal area is mainly dis-tributed in Datong、Zhangbei and Daixian.Based on regional geological tectonic condition、b value spatial distribution image、historical earthquakes and Characteristics of modern seismic activity,we divided the border of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia into Zhangbei、Yanqing、Datong and Daixian four sections,and calculated b value time scanning by using the best fit-ting method and the method of maximum likelihood,we analyzed the current seismicity char-acteristics of four sections by using the multiple seismicity parameter values of fault segmen-tation.Comprehensive judgement that the fault segment which relatively is in high stress and locking state.The results show that Zhangbei segment is in relative locking state under high stress background,but it is influenced by 1998、1999 Zhangbei M 6.2、M 5.6 strong after-shocks,we should pay attention to Zhangbei section.Comprehensive analysis that we should pay attention to the future occurrence risk of moderate-strong earthquake of Zhangbei section and Yanqing section.