CAJ | 학술논문

利用1971-2011年辽宁省58个常规观测站日最低气温资料，分析辽宁寒潮时空分布特征。结果表明：1971-2011年辽宁寒潮年平均发生频次空间分布存在两个大值中心，一个位于辽宁东北部地区，另一个位于辽西建平地区；11月大范围强寒潮出现最多。近41 a辽宁区域性寒潮呈不显著下降趋势，在20世纪70年代出现最多；区域性寒潮在10月中旬至翌年5月上旬均可出现，12月上旬至翌年2月下旬是区域性寒潮集中出现时段，出现最多的为1月；区域性寒潮出现次数存在20、13、8 a和4 a的变化周期。影响辽宁区域性寒潮的主要天气形势有小槽发展型、横槽型和低槽东移型。寒潮物理量预报指标主要有：寒潮前至少有一日升温过程；500 hPa冷中心温度≤-40℃；地面冷高压主体中心气压为1050 hPa以上，分裂小高压中心气压为1030 hPa以上；500 hPa和850 hPa急流普遍为24 m·s-1和12 m·s-1以上；850 hPa辽宁附近等温线密集程度≥5条/10纬度；风向与等温线夹角基本大于60°。
이용1971-2011년요녕성58개상규관측참일최저기온자료，분석료녕한조시공분포특정。결과표명：1971-2011년료녕한조년평균발생빈차공간분포존재량개대치중심，일개위우료녕동북부지구，령일개위우료서건평지구；11월대범위강한조출현최다。근41 a료녕구역성한조정불현저하강추세，재20세기70년대출현최다；구역성한조재10월중순지익년5월상순균가출현，12월상순지익년2월하순시구역성한조집중출현시단，출현최다적위1월；구역성한조출현차수존재20、13、8 a화4 a적변화주기。영향료녕구역성한조적주요천기형세유소조발전형、횡조형화저조동이형。한조물리량예보지표주요유：한조전지소유일일승온과정；500 hPa랭중심온도≤-40℃；지면랭고압주체중심기압위1050 hPa이상，분렬소고압중심기압위1030 hPa이상；500 hPa화850 hPa급류보편위24 m·s-1화12 m·s-1이상；850 hPa료녕부근등온선밀집정도≥5조/10위도；풍향여등온선협각기본대우60°。
Based on diurnal minimum temperature data at 58 meteorological stations in Liaoning province from 1971 to 2011,the spatial and temporal characteristics of cold wave were analyzed.The results indicate that there are two centers of large values for annual mean frequency of cold wave.One center is located in the northeast Liaoning province,and another is in Jianping of western Liaoning province.The most widespread strong cold wave events occur in November.Regional cold wave mainly occurs in 1970s,which is in an insignificantly decreasing trend in recent 41 years.Cold wave often appears from middle ten days of October and early ten days of May of next year, and it concentrates between early ten days of December and last ten days of February of next year,especially in January.There are a 20-year,13-year,8-year and 4-year cycles for regional cold wave.Weather patterns affecting regional cold wave include a small trough type,a horizontal trough type and an east moving type of low trough. The indexes forecasting regional cold wave are as follows:there is an increasing temperature process at least one day before regional cold wave happens;temperature of 500 hPa cold centre is less than or equal to -40 ℃;the central value of high pressure system is above 1050 hPa,and pressure is more than 1030 hPa in the center of split-ting smaller high pressure;jet stream is greater than or equal to 24 m·s-1 at 500 hPa and 12 m·s-1 at 850 hPa;iso-therm density at 850 hPa around Liaoning province is above 5 strips /10 latitude,and angle between wind direction and isotherms is greater than 60°.