CAJ | 학술논문

区域消费水平是经济发展的重要动力。本文以1978-2011年间我国各省区的人均消费品零售额表征区域消费水平，在我国区域消费水平差异测度的基础上，对区域消费水平差异的时间序列值进行突变点检测，进而将我国区域消费水平变化划分为1978-1986年和1986-2011年2个阶段。通过利用传统马尔科夫链及空间马尔科夫链方法，分别构建人均消费水平的非空间和空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵，对1978-1986年与1986-2011年2个阶段的区域消费水平的时空格局演变特征进行分析。研究结果表明：（1）区域消费水平在2个研究时段内的变化均存在着“俱乐部趋同”现象，无论是低消费水平与高消费水平区域均沿着最初类型稳步演进。（2）区域消费水平变化受到来自邻域消费水平背景的影响，使得其趋同的过程在空间上不独立。（3）区域间消费水平相互作用呈现出显著的东西分异特征，东部地区多为区域自身消费水平与邻域消费水平同时向上转移的状态，西部地区多为向下转移的状态，而中部地区多为平稳分布，邻域消费水平的状态变化较大。
구역소비수평시경제발전적중요동력。본문이1978-2011년간아국각성구적인균소비품령수액표정구역소비수평，재아국구역소비수평차이측도적기출상，대구역소비수평차이적시간서렬치진행돌변점검측，진이장아국구역소비수평변화화분위1978-1986년화1986-2011년2개계단。통과이용전통마이과부련급공간마이과부련방법，분별구건인균소비수평적비공간화공간마이과부전이개솔구진，대1978-1986년여1986-2011년2개계단적구역소비수평적시공격국연변특정진행분석。연구결과표명：（1）구역소비수평재2개연구시단내적변화균존재착“구악부추동”현상，무론시저소비수평여고소비수평구역균연착최초류형은보연진。（2）구역소비수평변화수도래자린역소비수평배경적영향，사득기추동적과정재공간상불독립。（3）구역간소비수평상호작용정현출현저적동서분이특정，동부지구다위구역자신소비수평여린역소비수평동시향상전이적상태，서부지구다위향하전이적상태，이중부지구다위평은분포，린역소비수평적상태변화교대。
Regional consumption is an important driving force for the development of economy. The evolution of regional consumption level not only manifests the time sequence variation, but also shows the spatial interac-tion. While traditional studies consider little of the space-time effect together, this paper characterizes the region-al consumption level with the use of per capita consumption retail sales. On the basis of calculating regional con-sumption level gap, the mutation point of time series values for regional consumption level gap is detected. Fur-thermore, the change of consumption level in China is divided into two periods of 1978-1986 and 1996-2010. Then, by using the traditional Markov chain and space Markov chain method, we analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution pattern for per capita consumption level within the two periods respectively. The results show that:(1) the change of regional consumption level in each study phase shows the phenomenon of“club convergence”. And both the regions with low and high consumption level regions are steadily evolving along with their original types. (2) The variation of regional per capita consumption level is affected by the back-ground of consumption level in adjacent regions, and the convergence process is not spatially independent. Gen-erally, if a region is adjacent to regions with low consumption level, it will suffer from negative influences;if ad-jacent to regions with high consumption level, it will help increase the number of regions with their consumption level shifting upward and reduce the number of regions with same level transfer. (3) The interactions of regional consumption level between different regions present an obvious east-west differentiation trend. The regions and their neighborhoods with high consumption level that simultaneously shifting upward are mainly distributed in the east of China. The regions and their neighborhoods with consumption level shifting downward are clustered in the west of China. In addition, the central China region indicates a stationary consumption level, while the con-sumption level of the adjacent regions presents a varied state of convergence.