CAJ | 학술논문

利用1984-2010年湖南灾情统计资料，对湖南暴雨洪涝灾害损失的时空特征进行了分析，并以年降水量、地区生产总值、人口数、城镇率和建成区面积等为指标，从自然和社会2个方面，初步探究了湖南洪涝灾害格局的影响因素。结果表明：湖南暴雨洪涝灾害整体呈现加重的趋势。洪涝灾害年内分布差异大，夏季最为集中，空间上主要集中在“湘资沅澧”四水流域下游和洞庭湖区。湖南暴雨洪涝灾害损失的变化受自然因素和社会因素共同的影响，从全省来看，损失与年降水量、地区生产总值、人口和城镇率间均表现出显著的正相关，其中前两者尤为显著，作为致灾因子的强降水是造成湖南洪涝灾害发生的直接原因，虽然社会经济的快速发展在一定程度上降低了灾害脆弱性，但同时灾害暴露性的增加更为显著，从而使得湖南暴雨洪涝灾害的损失以及风险呈现上升趋势。
이용1984-2010년호남재정통계자료，대호남폭우홍로재해손실적시공특정진행료분석，병이년강수량、지구생산총치、인구수、성진솔화건성구면적등위지표，종자연화사회2개방면，초보탐구료호남홍로재해격국적영향인소。결과표명：호남폭우홍로재해정체정현가중적추세。홍로재해년내분포차이대，하계최위집중，공간상주요집중재“상자원례”사수류역하유화동정호구。호남폭우홍로재해손실적변화수자연인소화사회인소공동적영향，종전성래간，손실여년강수량、지구생산총치、인구화성진솔간균표현출현저적정상관，기중전량자우위현저，작위치재인자적강강수시조성호남홍로재해발생적직접원인，수연사회경제적쾌속발전재일정정도상강저료재해취약성，단동시재해폭로성적증가경위현저，종이사득호남폭우홍로재해적손실이급풍험정현상승추세。
Records for rainstorm-floods in Hunan from 1984-2007 were analyzed for disaster temporal-spatial distribution.Both nature and socio-economic developments were considered,factors such as annual precipitation,GDP,population,urban rate and urban built-up were studied to explore their linkage to disaster distribution.Data indicated that rainstorm-flood disaster in Hunan tended to be worse and be presented with an uneven temporal-spatial distribution.They were mainly concentrated in the summer;the most severely affected areas were in the downstream basins of the Xiang,Zi,Yuan,Li Rivers and in the Dongting Lake regions.The trend of flood-induced economic loss was influenced by both natural and social factors.Positive correlation was found between loss and overall annual precipitation,GDP,population and urban rate in Hunan,with the first two factors dominating.Although precipitation was a direct cause for rainstorm-flood disaster,with rapid development of society and economy,decreased regional vulnerability to disaster,disproportionally increased regional exposure,still led to more severe rainstorm-flood risks.