CAJ | 학술논문

深入研究中国煤炭消费影响因素及其作用强度，对中国节能减排政策的科学制定具有重要的现实意义。基于LMDI分解法定量分析了经济增长、产业结构、能源消费结构和能源效率四个因素对中国煤炭消费增长的影响。结果发现：经济增长是拉动中国煤炭增长的决定性因素，产业结构和能源消费结构的变动对中国煤炭消费增长也具有正向影响，能源效率的提高是抑制中国煤炭消费的主要因素。根据分析结果，本文对调控煤炭消费的政策进行了延伸性讨论，认为煤炭消费调控政策的重点在于抑制因经济增长方式不合理而引致的煤炭消费不合理增长，并从产业结构调整、能源消费结构调整和能源效率提高三个层面，提出了抑制煤炭消费不合理增长的若干建议。
심입연구중국매탄소비영향인소급기작용강도，대중국절능감배정책적과학제정구유중요적현실의의。기우LMDI분해법정량분석료경제증장、산업결구、능원소비결구화능원효솔사개인소대중국매탄소비증장적영향。결과발현：경제증장시랍동중국매탄증장적결정성인소，산업결구화능원소비결구적변동대중국매탄소비증장야구유정향영향，능원효솔적제고시억제중국매탄소비적주요인소。근거분석결과，본문대조공매탄소비적정책진행료연신성토론，인위매탄소비조공정책적중점재우억제인경제증장방식불합리이인치적매탄소비불합리증장，병종산업결구조정、능원소비결구조정화능원효솔제고삼개층면，제출료억제매탄소비불합리증장적약간건의。
A further study on China's coal consumption influencing factors and the intensity of their effects will contribute to the proper formulation of sound energy conservation and emission reduction policy in China .In this paper ,the influencing factors of economic growth ,industrial structure ,energy efficiency and energy consumption structure on China’s coal consumption are analyzed in detail via LMDI method .The result shows that ,in China ,the economic growth is the dominant factor that pulls the rapid growth of coal consumption ,the variation of industrial structure and energy consumption structure also has a positive impact on coal consumption grow th ,and the improvement of energy efficiency is the major factor that has restrained the coal consumption growth .According to the result of the analysis ,the coal consumption regulation policy is deeply discussed in this paper and it is believed that the key point of coal consumption regulation policy is to curb unreasonable growth of coal consumption caused by the unreasonable mold of economic growth .And then ,some proposals are put forward from three aspects :the adjustment of industrial structure ,the optimization of energy consumption structure and the improvement of energy efficiency .