CAJ | 학술논문

基于对全球铜消费历史、应用领域和主要国家消费量的分析，根据人均铜消费量与人均GDP“S”形规律，按照人口、人均GDP、城市化率、产业结构等指标将全球划分为四类国家，分析不同类型国家及全球整体到2040年铜需求变化趋势。分析表明随着经济的发展，未来25年全球铜需求仍将快速增长；发达国家铜消费的绝对量和占全球比例都呈下降趋势；中国、巴西等即将进入工业化中后期的国家仍是全球铜需求的主体，长期占据半壁江山；印度等即将进入工业化的国家铜需求增长迅速；不发达国家未来需求增长缓慢。
기우대전구동소비역사、응용영역화주요국가소비량적분석，근거인균동소비량여인균GDP“S”형규률，안조인구、인균GDP、성시화솔、산업결구등지표장전구화분위사류국가，분석불동류형국가급전구정체도2040년동수구변화추세。분석표명수착경제적발전，미래25년전구동수구잉장쾌속증장；발체국가동소비적절대량화점전구비례도정하강추세；중국、파서등즉장진입공업화중후기적국가잉시전구동수구적주체，장기점거반벽강산；인도등즉장진입공업화적국가동수구증장신속；불발체국가미래수구증장완만。
Based on the analysis of the global copper consumption history ,the application areas and the copper consumption of major countries ,and also the“s”-shaped law between the copper consumption and the GDP per capita ,the whole world was divided into four categories with the indexes of population ,GDP per capita ,urbanization rate ,industrial structure and so on ,the copper consumption law of different country types and the whole world was analyzed from now to 2040 .The analysis shows that with the economic development ,the global copper demand will grow rapidly in the next 25 years ;the global copper consumption in developed countries and this proportion in the whole world both show a downward trend ;China ,Brazil and other countries which are about to enter the industrialization mid and late part are still the major copper consumption ,taking up half of the world for a long time ;the copper demand of India and other countries which are about to enter the industrialization grows rapidly ;and the demand of those undeveloped countries grow slowly .