CAJ | 학술논문

以蒙古栎凋落叶片为实验材料，在室内构建不同含水率、风速及压缩比的可燃物床层，用烟头对蒙古栎落叶床层进行了900余次点燃燃烧试验，记录点燃概率，并进行统计分析。结果表明：风速对点燃概率有很大影响，当风速＜2m? s-1时，不论蒙古栎落叶的含水率与压缩比如何改变，烟头都不能点燃蒙古栎落叶；当风速≥2m?s-1时，可燃物能够点燃，但风速对点燃概率无显著作用。含水率、床层压缩比对燃烧概率有极显著作用，3个因子间的交互作用对燃烧概率也有极显著作用。当可燃物含水率超过10％时，无论有风无风，烟头都难以点燃蒙古栎凋落叶片。用Logistic回归拟合得到含水率、风速、压缩比对烟头点燃蒙古栎落叶的概率模型，模型预报的准确率在90％左右，误报率不超过40％。
이몽고력조락협편위실험재료，재실내구건불동함수솔、풍속급압축비적가연물상층，용연두대몽고력락협상층진행료900여차점연연소시험，기록점연개솔，병진행통계분석。결과표명：풍속대점연개솔유흔대영향，당풍속＜2m? s-1시，불론몽고력락협적함수솔여압축비여하개변，연두도불능점연몽고력락협；당풍속≥2m?s-1시，가연물능구점연，단풍속대점연개솔무현저작용。함수솔、상층압축비대연소개솔유겁현저작용，3개인자간적교호작용대연소개솔야유겁현저작용。당가연물함수솔초과10％시，무론유풍무풍，연두도난이점연몽고력조락협편。용Logistic회귀의합득도함수솔、풍속、압축비대연두점연몽고력락협적개솔모형，모형예보적준학솔재90％좌우，오보솔불초과40％。
Fuelbeds composed of Mongolian oak leave were constructed with varied fuel moisture contents and packing ratios .Over 900 ignition experiments were conducted by dropping cigarette ends on the fuelbeds to test burning probability of the fuels under varied wind speeds .The wind speed significantly influenced burning probability of the fuelbed .No fuelbed was igni-ted when wind speed was lower than 2 m? s-1 regardless of fuelbed packing ratio and moisture content .Fuebed was ignited when wind speed was higher than 2 m? s-1 , but the wind speed makes no significant differences on burning probability . Fuel moisture content , packing ration and their interaction with wind speed affected burning probability .No burning oc-curred when fuel moisture content was higher than 10%.A logistic model was established for predicting burning probability by using these variables with accuracy of 90%.