CAJ | 학술논문

针对某型系列弹密集度评定，给出了基于混合倒伽玛分布的 Bayes 区间估计方法。该方法通过引入继承因子，有效利用了历史样本信息。通过对不同总体下随机抽样的方式，比较了该方法与经典统计理论中区间估计算法在风险特征方面的差异，结果表明：该方法估计精度更高，具有更好的稳健性，尤其是纳伪概率控制较好，为科学、有效评定系列化弹药密集度提供了思路。
침대모형계렬탄밀집도평정，급출료기우혼합도가마분포적 Bayes 구간고계방법。해방법통과인입계승인자，유효이용료역사양본신식。통과대불동총체하수궤추양적방식，비교료해방법여경전통계이론중구간고계산법재풍험특정방면적차이，결과표명：해방법고계정도경고，구유경호적은건성，우기시납위개솔공제교호，위과학、유효평정계렬화탄약밀집도제공료사로。
In this paper,a Bayes interval estimation method based on mixed inverse gamma distribution is studied to assess dispersion index of series ammunition.The Bayes interval estimation method utilizes the historical sample information effectively by introducing inheritance factor.By means of random sampling of different populations,the differences between Bayes interval estimation and classic interval estimation method in risk characteristics are compared.It shows that the Bayes method is stable,especially satisfied on probability of refusing false information,with which method more scientific assessment has been per-formed.