世界科技研究与发展
世界科技研究與髮展
세계과기연구여발전
WORLD SCI-TECH R & D
2014年
4期
375-383
,共9页
降水变化特征%马尔科夫预测%空间插值%湖北省
降水變化特徵%馬爾科伕預測%空間插值%湖北省
강수변화특정%마이과부예측%공간삽치%호북성
features of precipitation change%Markov forecasting%spatial interpolation%Hubei province
采用湖北省郧西、老河口、麻城、恩施、宜昌、武汉6个气象台站1963~2012年降水的观测资料,运用距平统计、5年滑动平均、线性拟合等方法,分析了湖北省近50年各季节及全年降水状况,运用马尔科夫预测法对各台站2013~2017年年降水量进行了预测并用反距离权重(Inverse Distance Weighted,IDW)空间插值方法将预测扩展到其他未知区域。研究表明,湖北省近50年年降水量没有明显增减,但春、秋季降水量有减少趋势,夏、冬季呈增加趋势,夏季增雨中心在鄂东北,冬季增雨中心在鄂东南,20世纪90年代以来降水量波动性增强,稳定性减弱;预测2013~2017年年降水量鄂西北将略有增加,其他地区将不同程度减少。在此基础上,提出了湖北省各地区应对降水情况变化的对策建议,为湖北省乃至我国中部地区气候变化研究、湖北省社会经济持续健康发展提供参考。
採用湖北省鄖西、老河口、痳城、恩施、宜昌、武漢6箇氣象檯站1963~2012年降水的觀測資料,運用距平統計、5年滑動平均、線性擬閤等方法,分析瞭湖北省近50年各季節及全年降水狀況,運用馬爾科伕預測法對各檯站2013~2017年年降水量進行瞭預測併用反距離權重(Inverse Distance Weighted,IDW)空間插值方法將預測擴展到其他未知區域。研究錶明,湖北省近50年年降水量沒有明顯增減,但春、鞦季降水量有減少趨勢,夏、鼕季呈增加趨勢,夏季增雨中心在鄂東北,鼕季增雨中心在鄂東南,20世紀90年代以來降水量波動性增彊,穩定性減弱;預測2013~2017年年降水量鄂西北將略有增加,其他地區將不同程度減少。在此基礎上,提齣瞭湖北省各地區應對降水情況變化的對策建議,為湖北省迺至我國中部地區氣候變化研究、湖北省社會經濟持續健康髮展提供參攷。
채용호북성운서、로하구、마성、은시、의창、무한6개기상태참1963~2012년강수적관측자료,운용거평통계、5년활동평균、선성의합등방법,분석료호북성근50년각계절급전년강수상황,운용마이과부예측법대각태참2013~2017년년강수량진행료예측병용반거리권중(Inverse Distance Weighted,IDW)공간삽치방법장예측확전도기타미지구역。연구표명,호북성근50년년강수량몰유명현증감,단춘、추계강수량유감소추세,하、동계정증가추세,하계증우중심재악동북,동계증우중심재악동남,20세기90년대이래강수량파동성증강,은정성감약;예측2013~2017년년강수량악서북장략유증가,기타지구장불동정도감소。재차기출상,제출료호북성각지구응대강수정황변화적대책건의,위호북성내지아국중부지구기후변화연구、호북성사회경제지속건강발전제공삼고。
Based on precipitation observation data collected from 6 surface meteorological stations named Yunxi,Laohekou, Macheng,Enshi,Yichang,Wuhan in Hubei province from 1963 to 2012,by using many analytic methods,such as anomaly statistics,5 -year moving average,and liner trend,seasonal and annual changes in precipitation in Hubei province during the last 50 years were analyzed.Furthermore,on the basis of Markov Chin forecasting model,annual precipitation of the 6 stations above in the following 5 years 2013 to 2017 were predicted,and they were extended to the unknown regions in Hu-bei province using the inverse distance weighting (IDW)spatial interpolation.The results showed that the annual precipita-tion in Hubei province during the last 50 years presented no obvious fluctuation,seasonal precipitation reduced in spring and autumn and increased in summer and winter,however.The summer increasing center lay in the Northeast and winter in the Southeast.Besides,the volatility boosted since the 1990s,thus the stability declined.As was predicted,in the following 5 years,the annual precipitation may raise to a small extent in Northwestern Hubei and decline in other regions.Based on the analysis above,counter-measures to cope with the precipitation change in Hubei province were put forward,thus laying the foundation for the research on climate change in Hubei province and even central China,or contributing to Hubei's sustain-able development.