人民长江
人民長江
인민장강
YANGTZE RIVER
2014年
16期
98-101,108
,共5页
随机模拟%峰量分析%时变Copula模型%静态Copula模型
隨機模擬%峰量分析%時變Copula模型%靜態Copula模型
수궤모의%봉량분석%시변Copula모형%정태Copula모형
stochastic simulation%analysis of peak and volume%time-varying Copula model%static Copula model
为了建立合理可靠的随机水文模型,通过利用一个类似ARMA(1, q )的过程,描述了Copula函数相关参数的时变变化过程,构造了一种时变Copula模型,并探讨该模型在峰量联合分析中的适用性。实例应用表明,该模型对洪峰和洪量之间相关性刻画与静态Copula模型相当,能很好地保持洪峰和洪量实测系列的统计特征,适用性较好,可为水文水资源随机模拟提供一种新途径。
為瞭建立閤理可靠的隨機水文模型,通過利用一箇類似ARMA(1, q )的過程,描述瞭Copula函數相關參數的時變變化過程,構造瞭一種時變Copula模型,併探討該模型在峰量聯閤分析中的適用性。實例應用錶明,該模型對洪峰和洪量之間相關性刻畫與靜態Copula模型相噹,能很好地保持洪峰和洪量實測繫列的統計特徵,適用性較好,可為水文水資源隨機模擬提供一種新途徑。
위료건립합리가고적수궤수문모형,통과이용일개유사ARMA(1, q )적과정,묘술료Copula함수상관삼수적시변변화과정,구조료일충시변Copula모형,병탐토해모형재봉량연합분석중적괄용성。실례응용표명,해모형대홍봉화홍량지간상관성각화여정태Copula모형상당,능흔호지보지홍봉화홍량실측계렬적통계특정,괄용성교호,가위수문수자원수궤모의제공일충신도경。
In order to establish a reasonable and reliable stochastic hydrologic model, the time-varying process of correlative parameters of Copula was described by using a process similar to ARMA(1,q). The time-varying Copula model was established and the varying process of its parameters was deduced. The feasibility of time-varying Copula model in joint analysis of flood peak and volume was discussed. The example shows that the relativity between peak flood and its volume described by time-var-ying Copula model is close to that by static Copula model, which can keep the statistical features of measured flood peak and vol-ume series. The model is suitable for stochastic hydrological simulation.
