CAJ | 학술논문

暴雨洪涝灾害更是种十分常见的自然灾害，所以对其风险评估刻不容缓。该文利用到江苏1957-2007年的降水资料，将整个评估流程划分为四个部分，致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和抗灾因子安全性，其中自然灾害中导致灾害直接发生的因素即是致灾因子，因此对致灾因子的正确评估对整个评估起着举足轻重的作用。其中选取样条插值法中的张力样条函数来处理致灾因子部分，能形成一个比较光滑的曲线，比较真实的符合降雨情况，然后结合灾害评估方法、层次分析法、ArcGIS空间处理方法、加权综合评价法，以县为单位，公里为栅格进行评估。结果表明江苏省的自然风险呈从南至北逐渐增加，风险较高地区主要集中在苏北例如宿迁、徐州、淮安等城市一带，其结果与历年灾情相符合。
폭우홍로재해경시충십분상견적자연재해，소이대기풍험평고각불용완。해문이용도강소1957-2007년적강수자료，장정개평고류정화분위사개부분，치재인자위험성、잉재배경민감성、승재체역손성화항재인자안전성，기중자연재해중도치재해직접발생적인소즉시치재인자，인차대치재인자적정학평고대정개평고기착거족경중적작용。기중선취양조삽치법중적장력양조함수래처리치재인자부분，능형성일개비교광활적곡선，비교진실적부합강우정황，연후결합재해평고방법、층차분석법、ArcGIS공간처리방법、가권종합평개법，이현위단위，공리위책격진행평고。결과표명강소성적자연풍험정종남지북축점증가，풍험교고지구주요집중재소북례여숙천、서주、회안등성시일대，기결과여력년재정상부합。
Rainstorm and flood risk is very common kind of natural disaster,so urgent assessment of its risks.This paper use Jiangsu rainfall data 1957-2007 ,and it will evaluate the whole process is divided into four parts,hazard risk,suffering flexibility,pregnant disaster environmental sensitivity,disaster resisting security,among other factors,hazards are the factors directly occur cause natural disasters , so the correct assessment of hazard assessment for the entire play a decisive role.The paper selected spline interpolation method tension spline function to handle with hazards section, the advantage in tension spline function with convexity,can form a relatively smooth curve, more in line with actual rainfall.Then it combined with disaster assessment method, AHP, ARCGIS spa-tial processing method, weighted comprehensive evaluation method, the county as a unit, kilometers assess raster. The results showed that natural risks of Jiangsu Province increased gradually from south to north, mainly in the higher risk areas such as northern Jiangsu Suqian, Xuzhou, Huaian and other cities area, and the results consistent with the calendar year of the disaster.