CAJ | 학술논문

为定量分析三峡船闸通航状态，运用复杂系统科学理论与突变理论的广义模型方法，建立基于多层次和多指标的综合评价模型。首先，定性分析由船闸可靠性、船舶畅通性和管理高效性三个要素构成的船闸通航状态评价指标体系；然后，对三峡船闸通航状态系统的突变状态进行研究，进而建立基于燕尾突变模型的年度评价和基于蝴蝶突变模型的月度评价。运用2006年-2010年三峡船闸年报数据探讨突变理论在三峡船闸通航状态评价中的实证应用。
위정량분석삼협선갑통항상태，운용복잡계통과학이론여돌변이론적엄의모형방법，건립기우다층차화다지표적종합평개모형。수선，정성분석유선갑가고성、선박창통성화관리고효성삼개요소구성적선갑통항상태평개지표체계；연후，대삼협선갑통항상태계통적돌변상태진행연구，진이건립기우연미돌변모형적년도평개화기우호접돌변모형적월도평개。운용2006년-2010년삼협선갑년보수거탐토돌변이론재삼협선갑통항상태평개중적실증응용。
To quantitatively assess the navigation situation of the three gorges ship lock , the paper applied complex system science theory and catastrophe theory method of the general-ized model to establish multi-level and multi-index based com-prehensive evaluation model .Firstly, the paper set up a com-prehensive assessment index with lock reliability , ship acces-sibility and management efficiency .And then, mutation status of three gorges navigation state system were studied , and year-ly swallowtail catastrophe model and monthly butterfly catas-trophe model were established .Data retrieved from yearly re-cord from 2006 to 2010 is practically analyzed by using the proposed model .