西部论坛
西部論罈
서부론단
JOURNAL OF CHONGQING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY(WEST FORUM)
2014年
5期
70-79
,共10页
潜在产出%潜在生产能力%产出缺口%实时产出缺口%事后修正产出缺口%准实时产出缺口%小波降噪%产出缺口率%技术进步
潛在產齣%潛在生產能力%產齣缺口%實時產齣缺口%事後脩正產齣缺口%準實時產齣缺口%小波降譟%產齣缺口率%技術進步
잠재산출%잠재생산능력%산출결구%실시산출결구%사후수정산출결구%준실시산출결구%소파강조%산출결구솔%기술진보
potential output%potential production capacity%output gap%real-time output gap%post-correction output gap%quasi-real-time output gap%wavelet noise reduction%output gap rate%technical progress
分别采用线性趋势、HP滤波以及小波降噪方法估算1986-2012年我国的实时、事后修正和准实时产出缺口，对各方法估计结果从实时与事后修正估计的一致性、对通货膨胀的预测能力、与历史经济波动曲线走向的一致性和稳定性四个维度进行比较分析，得出小波降噪实时产出缺口估计结果较优的结论。从内生推动、外生拉动两个方面分析产出缺口形成的影响因素，结果表明：内生因素中，技术进步波动对GDP产出缺口的影响较大，国际资本投入次之，人力资本投入最小，并且国际资本与人力资本投入在滞后一期的影响均比同期大；外生因素中，产出缺口受城镇人均可支配收入的影响较大，同时也受到人口老龄化程度的负向影响。因此调节产出缺口，应从促进技术进步、提高人力资本、引导外资投入、优化收入分配、改善人口结构等方面入手。
分彆採用線性趨勢、HP濾波以及小波降譟方法估算1986-2012年我國的實時、事後脩正和準實時產齣缺口，對各方法估計結果從實時與事後脩正估計的一緻性、對通貨膨脹的預測能力、與歷史經濟波動麯線走嚮的一緻性和穩定性四箇維度進行比較分析，得齣小波降譟實時產齣缺口估計結果較優的結論。從內生推動、外生拉動兩箇方麵分析產齣缺口形成的影響因素，結果錶明：內生因素中，技術進步波動對GDP產齣缺口的影響較大，國際資本投入次之，人力資本投入最小，併且國際資本與人力資本投入在滯後一期的影響均比同期大；外生因素中，產齣缺口受城鎮人均可支配收入的影響較大，同時也受到人口老齡化程度的負嚮影響。因此調節產齣缺口，應從促進技術進步、提高人力資本、引導外資投入、優化收入分配、改善人口結構等方麵入手。
분별채용선성추세、HP려파이급소파강조방법고산1986-2012년아국적실시、사후수정화준실시산출결구，대각방법고계결과종실시여사후수정고계적일치성、대통화팽창적예측능력、여역사경제파동곡선주향적일치성화은정성사개유도진행비교분석，득출소파강조실시산출결구고계결과교우적결론。종내생추동、외생랍동량개방면분석산출결구형성적영향인소，결과표명：내생인소중，기술진보파동대GDP산출결구적영향교대，국제자본투입차지，인력자본투입최소，병차국제자본여인력자본투입재체후일기적영향균비동기대；외생인소중，산출결구수성진인균가지배수입적영향교대，동시야수도인구노령화정도적부향영향。인차조절산출결구，응종촉진기술진보、제고인력자본、인도외자투입、우화수입분배、개선인구결구등방면입수。
By applying linear trend method, HP filtering method and wavelet noise reduction method respectively, this paper makes comparison and analysis of such four dimensions as real-time, post-correction and quasi-real-time output gap estimation during 1986-2012 in China, the consistency from real-time to post-correction of the estimation from all kinds of methods, the consistency between inflation prediction capacity and historic economic volatility curve trends and the stability of the estimated results, concludes that the real-time output gap estimation result by wavelet noise reduction method is better, analyzes the influential factors of output gap from such two aspects as endogenous pull and exogenous drive, and the results show that the influence of technical progress volatility on GDP output gap is big in endogenous factors, the influence of international capital is second and the influence of human capital input is the smallest, meanwhile, the impact of the input of international capital and human capital on the later period is bigger than on the same period, and that in exogenous factors, the impact of urban per capita disposable income on output gap rate is big while output gap rate is negatively affected by population aging degree. Thus, output gap adjustment should start from technical progress promotion, human capital efficiency-increase, foreign capital investment attraction, income distribution optimization, population structure improvement and so on.
