重庆理工大学学报(社会科学版)
重慶理工大學學報(社會科學版)
중경리공대학학보(사회과학판)
JOURNAL OF CHONGQING INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
2014年
8期
12-16,29
,共6页
主观概率%客观概率%随机抽样悖论%主体交互解释
主觀概率%客觀概率%隨機抽樣悖論%主體交互解釋
주관개솔%객관개솔%수궤추양패론%주체교호해석
subjective probability%objective probability%the paradox of random sampling%the inter-subjective probability
在科学推理中,一直存在着主观概率与客观概率的争议。频率主义者坚持概率的频率解释,认为概率只能是客观的。但是随机抽样悖论表明,经典统计推理不可能避免随机样本的主观性。贝叶斯主义者根据概率的主观解释,用赌商的方式量化先验知识,协调了主客观之间的矛盾。概率的应用性表明,概率解释的选择是多元的,主体交互概率解释为主观解释提供了一条融合客观因素的新进路。
在科學推理中,一直存在著主觀概率與客觀概率的爭議。頻率主義者堅持概率的頻率解釋,認為概率隻能是客觀的。但是隨機抽樣悖論錶明,經典統計推理不可能避免隨機樣本的主觀性。貝葉斯主義者根據概率的主觀解釋,用賭商的方式量化先驗知識,協調瞭主客觀之間的矛盾。概率的應用性錶明,概率解釋的選擇是多元的,主體交互概率解釋為主觀解釋提供瞭一條融閤客觀因素的新進路。
재과학추리중,일직존재착주관개솔여객관개솔적쟁의。빈솔주의자견지개솔적빈솔해석,인위개솔지능시객관적。단시수궤추양패론표명,경전통계추리불가능피면수궤양본적주관성。패협사주의자근거개솔적주관해석,용도상적방식양화선험지식,협조료주객관지간적모순。개솔적응용성표명,개솔해석적선택시다원적,주체교호개솔해석위주관해석제공료일조융합객관인소적신진로。
In scientific reasoning,there is a source of debate between subjective probability and ob-jective probability.Frequentists insist on the frequency interpretation of probability;they take proba-bilities as objective.However,the paradox of random sampling shows that the subjectivity of random sampling cannot be avoided in statistical reasoning.According to the subjective interpretation of prob-ability,and the quantification of prior knowledge,the contradiction between the subjective and objec-tive is reconciled by Bayesians.The applicability of probability shows that the selection of probability interpretation is multiple,that is,there are various viable interpretations of probability.To introduce objective factors,this is a new approach to subjective probability in accordance with the inter-subjec-tive probability.