CAJ | 학술논문

利用青岛市1961年～2012年的逐日气温观测资料，采用线性倾向估计法和Pettitt突变检验方法，分析了青岛市年和四季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温时间序列的变化趋势和突变情况。近52年间，青岛市年平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温分别为12.72℃、16.23℃和10.04℃，且年平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温时间序列呈明显上升趋势，上升速率分别为0.248℃/10a、0.266℃/10a和0.250℃/10a ，上升趋势均通过了0.001显著性水平检验；青岛市四季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温时间序列均呈明显上升趋势，且所有时间序列上升趋势通过了至少0.05显著性水平检验，其中，春季和冬季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温的上升趋势较夏季和秋季更明显。青岛市年、四季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温所有时间序列中出现增大突变，其中，年、春季和冬季突变通过了至少0.01显著性水平检验，突变点主要集中在1985年～1988年，夏季和冬季突变通过了至少0.05显著性水平检验，夏季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温突变点分别为1993年、1989年和1993年，秋季平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温突变点则均为分别为1987年、1997年。
이용청도시1961년～2012년적축일기온관측자료，채용선성경향고계법화Pettitt돌변검험방법，분석료청도시년화사계평균기온、평균최고기온화최저기온시간서렬적변화추세화돌변정황。근52년간，청도시년평균기온、평균최고기온화평균최저기온분별위12.72℃、16.23℃화10.04℃，차년평균기온、평균최고기온화최저기온시간서렬정명현상승추세，상승속솔분별위0.248℃/10a、0.266℃/10a화0.250℃/10a ，상승추세균통과료0.001현저성수평검험；청도시사계평균기온、평균최고기온화최저기온시간서렬균정명현상승추세，차소유시간서렬상승추세통과료지소0.05현저성수평검험，기중，춘계화동계평균기온、평균최고기온화최저기온적상승추세교하계화추계경명현。청도시년、사계평균기온、평균최고기온화최저기온소유시간서렬중출현증대돌변，기중，년、춘계화동계돌변통과료지소0.01현저성수평검험，돌변점주요집중재1985년～1988년，하계화동계돌변통과료지소0.05현저성수평검험，하계평균기온、평균최고기온화최저기온돌변점분별위1993년、1989년화1993년，추계평균기온、평균최고기온화최저기온돌변점칙균위분별위1987년、1997년。
In this study ,the variability of annual and seasonal mean temperature ,mean maximum tempera-ture ,and mean minimum temperature in Qingdao during the period 1961 ~ 2012 were examined . The methods of linear regression and Pettitt test were used to identify the presence of trends and change point . The results showed that the averaged annual mean temperature ,mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature were 12.72℃ ,16.23℃ and 10.04℃ ,respectively during the past 52 years .The an-nual mean temperature ,mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature exhibited statistical-ly significant increasing trends during 1961~2012 with the increasing rates of 0.248℃/decade ,0.266℃/decade and 0.250℃/decade ,respectively .On the seasonal time scale ,the mean temperature ,mean maxi-mum temperature and minimum temperature exhibited significant increasing trends at least the significance level of 0.05 during the past 52 years .More significant increasing trends in spring and winter were ob-served compared to summer and autumn seasons .A statistically significant upward shift were detected in the annual mean temperature ,mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature in year 1988 , 1987 and 1988 ,respectively .Also more significant upward shift were detected in the spring and winter mean temperature ,mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature at least the significance level of 0.01 compared to summer and autumn seasons .